{ "ticker": { "uuid": "afd05a3f-c87b-4f95-a006-9246ac7cbacb", "symbol": "XSSX", "name": "Xtrackers Euro Stoxx 50 Short Daily Swap UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -85.202, "architecture_energy": 80.001, "architecture_maturity": 45.191, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.85, "rotation_up": 24.61, "upward_expansion": 16.55, "deceleration": 42.29, "rotation_down": 66.03, "downward_expansion": 92.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 439.298333, 443.009545, 454.929285, 465.154569 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 430.05, "trend_reference": 475.133333, "distance_from_trend": -0.094886, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 550.958268, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.219451, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.086611, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.109535, "excess_performance": -0.16077, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.094886, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041339, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.219451, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068587, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.200866, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078084, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.109535, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.230811, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 434, "relative_activity": 0.003585, "balance": 0.230811, "dry_up": 0.153909, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024613, "annualized_volatility": 0.166659, "from_high_reference": -0.264796, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 475.133333, "fair_value_reference": 550.958268, "structural_low": 430.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.002326, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": 0.000469, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.103871, "worst_return": -0.077243, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.025902, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.031961, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.067686, "worst_return": -0.087339, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.051945, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.111109, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.157241, "worst_return": -0.102499, 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-16.566921, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.942285, "energy": 87.106281, "activity_lines": [ 446.241667, 454.238636, 468.445713, 475.173817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 447.375, "volume": 3631, "typical_volume": 194366.2, "trend": 480.6975, "fair_value": 554.6658, "relative_strength": -16.387417, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.955817, "energy": 84.357527, "activity_lines": [ 445.785, 451.620454, 465.365475, 472.899408 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 445.2, "volume": 42119, "typical_volume": 167898.85, "trend": 478.7025, "fair_value": 553.580223, "relative_strength": -17.292328, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.867578, "energy": 80.059263, "activity_lines": [ 445.251667, 449.208182, 462.220833, 470.609247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 440.975, "volume": 28355, "typical_volume": 147905.05, "trend": 476.87, "fair_value": 552.308909, "relative_strength": -18.422496, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.355859, "energy": 67.71055, "activity_lines": [ 443.665, 446.852273, 458.944999, 468.175215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 430.05, "volume": 434, "typical_volume": 121076.6, "trend": 475.133333, "fair_value": 550.958268, "relative_strength": -20.086611, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.20172, "energy": 80.001367, "activity_lines": [ 439.298333, 443.009545, 454.929285, 465.154569 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }