{ "ticker": { "uuid": "afd42a4e-1ac2-4f9b-98ff-41e0c75246af", "symbol": "PFLD", "name": "ETF SERIES SOLUTIONS AAM LOW DURATION PFD AND INCOME SECS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 41.171, "architecture_energy": 18.593, "architecture_maturity": 34.598, "architecture_confidence": 69.392, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.39, "rotation_up": 38.27, "upward_expansion": 60.11, "deceleration": 78.44, "rotation_down": 23.26, "downward_expansion": 16.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.506685, 19.514328, 19.505271, 19.474284 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 19.54, "trend_reference": 19.437952, "distance_from_trend": 0.00525, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.719772, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.043816, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.694781, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.007707, "excess_performance": -0.117918, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00525, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007166, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.043816, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009572, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.096948, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00594, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.007707, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.674492, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 331301, "relative_activity": 1.001539, "balance": 1.674492, "dry_up": 0.804883, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.006303, "annualized_volatility": 0.028939, "from_high_reference": -0.005575, "from_low_reference": 0.044784 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.437952, "fair_value_reference": 18.719772, "structural_low": 19.079573, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.001859, "positive_rate": 0.633333, "directional_follow_through": 0.633333, "median_excess_return": -0.013805, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.02906, "worst_return": -0.036362, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.00513, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.03482, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.038272, "worst_return": -0.038295, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.010899, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.078516, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.059834, "worst_return": -0.01461, 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"modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.005616, "energy": 32.245685, "activity_lines": [ 19.528452, 19.518689, 19.483364, 19.450698 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.540275, "volume": 114243, "typical_volume": 357183.6, "trend": 19.409544, "fair_value": 18.67878, "relative_strength": -6.827345, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.44316, "energy": 28.202927, "activity_lines": [ 19.531263, 19.524992, 19.493105, 19.459972 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.47, "volume": 339887, "typical_volume": 337045.25, "trend": 19.420045, "fair_value": 18.692259, "relative_strength": -6.408927, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.525785, "energy": 20.482085, "activity_lines": [ 19.509306, 19.517878, 19.495511, 19.463872 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.47, "volume": 279564, "typical_volume": 332313.5, "trend": 19.428566, "fair_value": 18.705738, "relative_strength": -7.147763, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.427545, "energy": 15.956578, "activity_lines": [ 19.496, 19.50978, 19.49747, 19.467095 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.54, "volume": 331301, "typical_volume": 330792.0, "trend": 19.437952, "fair_value": 18.719772, "relative_strength": -9.694781, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.171329, "energy": 18.592841, "activity_lines": [ 19.506685, 19.514328, 19.505271, 19.474284 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }