{ "ticker": { "uuid": "afdb45d5-0438-45d6-a135-7be791689d11", "symbol": "ZLD", "name": "BMO Low Volatility International Equity Hedged to CAD ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 51.966, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.299, "architecture_energy": 86.522, "architecture_maturity": 9.321, "architecture_confidence": 63.385, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.15, "rotation_up": 85.34, "upward_expansion": 97.31, "deceleration": 39.03, "rotation_down": 8.25, "downward_expansion": 19.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.417666, 31.040164, 30.624062, 30.539732 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 31.709999, "trend_reference": 30.446117, "distance_from_trend": 0.041512, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.622513, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.147977, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.416489, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.041874, "excess_performance": -0.078548, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.041512, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012053, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.147977, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049956, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.064165, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055853, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.041874, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.79845, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1700, "relative_activity": 0.10635, "balance": 4.79845, "dry_up": 0.731936, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016036, "annualized_volatility": 0.11843, "from_high_reference": -0.017049, "from_low_reference": 0.09931 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.446117, "fair_value_reference": 27.622513, "structural_low": 29.552479, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.008962, "positive_rate": 0.580645, "directional_follow_through": 0.580645, "median_excess_return": -0.002053, "regime_survival": 0.612903, "best_return": 0.034897, "worst_return": -0.031903, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.003118, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.026107, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.06739, "worst_return": -0.057736, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.055629, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.012228, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.089317, "worst_return": 0.004186, "sufficient": true 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"Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.842142, "energy": 37.073195, "activity_lines": [ 30.488232, 30.244315, 30.204391, 30.256911 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.129999, "volume": 1800, "typical_volume": 17240.0, "trend": 30.266747, "fair_value": 27.470821, "relative_strength": -6.318083, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.873815, "energy": 65.720646, "activity_lines": [ 30.741341, 30.434699, 30.283744, 30.315639 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.24, "volume": 6900, "typical_volume": 15645.0, "trend": 30.321422, "fair_value": 27.517418, "relative_strength": -5.894246, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.340203, "energy": 75.986779, "activity_lines": [ 30.975667, 30.618931, 30.376942, 30.37843 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.5, "volume": 36400, "typical_volume": 16585.0, "trend": 30.388389, "fair_value": 27.569894, "relative_strength": -4.356752, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.526848, "energy": 82.281673, "activity_lines": [ 31.212, 30.822105, 30.492965, 30.454467 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.709999, "volume": 1700, "typical_volume": 15985.0, "trend": 30.446117, "fair_value": 27.622513, "relative_strength": -6.416489, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.299051, "energy": 86.522382, "activity_lines": [ 31.417666, 31.040164, 30.624062, 30.539732 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }