{ "ticker": { "uuid": "afdf7d13-9715-4c40-a2e0-d3e9cef74252", "symbol": "INR", "name": "Amundi MSCI India Swap UCITS ETF EUR ACC", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 72.5, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 36.185, "architecture_energy": 24.484, "architecture_maturity": 11.011, "architecture_confidence": 40.863, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.01, "rotation_up": 46.72, "upward_expansion": 44.38, "deceleration": 40.62, "rotation_down": 27.36, "downward_expansion": 14.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.664333, 25.618418, 25.334548, 25.265168 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 25.924999, "trend_reference": 25.406567, "distance_from_trend": 0.020405, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 27.961012, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.072816, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.096335, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.040241, "excess_performance": -0.093553, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.020405, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030882, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.072816, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026551, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.080963, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01126, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.040241, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.420106, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43782, "relative_activity": 0.341421, "balance": 0.420106, "dry_up": 0.439459, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023681, "annualized_volatility": 0.17188, "from_high_reference": -0.105541, "from_low_reference": 0.128057 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.406567, "fair_value_reference": 27.961012, "structural_low": 22.982, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.023194, "positive_rate": 0.153846, "directional_follow_through": 0.153846, "median_excess_return": -0.023793, "regime_survival": 0.307692, "best_return": 0.027451, "worst_return": -0.074927, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.056063, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.069797, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.111239, "worst_return": -0.163447, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.061793, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.109181, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.081824, "worst_return": -0.085547, "sufficient": 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"relative_strength": -6.52575, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.055407, "energy": 41.208656, "activity_lines": [ 25.674667, 25.409745, 25.139224, 25.246422 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.24, "volume": 66216, "typical_volume": 145101.1, "trend": 25.534367, "fair_value": 27.932268, "relative_strength": -7.480952, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.878142, "energy": 17.209898, "activity_lines": [ 25.513667, 25.423345, 25.167043, 25.222243 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.735001, "volume": 47384, "typical_volume": 139484.75, "trend": 25.4603, "fair_value": 27.94564, "relative_strength": -6.843644, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.309513, "energy": 20.832042, "activity_lines": [ 25.552, 25.512491, 25.243971, 25.235187 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.924999, "volume": 43782, "typical_volume": 128234.8, "trend": 25.406567, "fair_value": 27.961012, "relative_strength": -8.096335, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.184812, "energy": 24.483875, "activity_lines": [ 25.664333, 25.618418, 25.334548, 25.265168 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }