{ "ticker": { "uuid": "afdfc05a-519c-4970-ac72-95f56ceb3982", "symbol": "4188", "name": "AmCad BioMed Corporation", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.3, "architecture_energy": 51.207, "architecture_maturity": 91.169, "architecture_confidence": 94.348, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.1, "rotation_up": 21.71, "upward_expansion": 7.8, "deceleration": 56.67, "rotation_down": 54.45, "downward_expansion": 78.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.94, 10.137273, 10.561905, 11.083656 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.05, "trend_reference": 11.911667, "distance_from_trend": -0.156289, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.641986, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.488341, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -48.539779, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.276978, "excess_performance": -0.71835, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.156289, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121451, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.488341, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056938, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.485398, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005607, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.276978, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.191284, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 121000, "relative_activity": 0.591517, "balance": 0.191284, "dry_up": 0.738617, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079602, "annualized_volatility": 0.245598, "from_high_reference": -0.415698, "from_low_reference": 0.109272 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.911667, "fair_value_reference": 19.641986, "structural_low": 9.06, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.022173, "positive_rate": 0.322581, "directional_follow_through": 0.645161, "median_excess_return": -0.032474, "regime_survival": 0.806452, "best_return": 0.189964, "worst_return": -0.244382, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.060674, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.094354, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.114865, "worst_return": -0.275779, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.12426, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.209533, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.094595, "worst_return": -0.277512, "sufficient": true }, 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.076687, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.17479, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029466, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044574, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.046468, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.105469, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.054176, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.240476, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.032258, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.327759, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 20.200001, "volume": 1286000, "typical_volume": 1092250.0, "trend": 17.395, "fair_value": 17.895833, "relative_strength": 10.783054, "stage": 2, "regime": 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10.880909, 11.412857, 12.020753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.7, "volume": 138000, "typical_volume": 215399.15, "trend": 12.728333, "fair_value": 20.007371, "relative_strength": -49.567378, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.518708, "energy": 54.468394, "activity_lines": [ 10.696667, 10.807273, 11.29119, 11.879892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.9, "volume": 193140, "typical_volume": 215830.55, "trend": 12.556667, "fair_value": 19.951281, "relative_strength": -49.470475, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.137432, "energy": 60.491289, "activity_lines": [ 10.45, 10.608182, 11.11, 11.697419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.1, "volume": 122130, "typical_volume": 208187.0, "trend": 12.393333, "fair_value": 19.903525, "relative_strength": -48.68837, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.494219, "energy": 56.467596, "activity_lines": [ 10.313333, 10.480909, 10.966667, 11.538925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.45, "volume": 212082, "typical_volume": 208634.3, "trend": 12.21, "fair_value": 19.820512, "relative_strength": -50.460723, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.723841, "energy": 63.913593, "activity_lines": [ 9.99, 10.261818, 10.77619, 11.349032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.1, "volume": 149150, "typical_volume": 204661.75, "trend": 12.053333, "fair_value": 19.724999, "relative_strength": -47.367221, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.173732, "energy": 56.501769, "activity_lines": [ 9.94, 10.194545, 10.664524, 11.212903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 10.05, "volume": 121000, "typical_volume": 204558.75, "trend": 11.911667, "fair_value": 19.641986, "relative_strength": -48.539779, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.299589, "energy": 51.206614, "activity_lines": [ 9.94, 10.137273, 10.561905, 11.083656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }