{ "ticker": { "uuid": "afe16482-a947-41de-99e5-28e11dd98ff7", "symbol": "VXUS", "name": "Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 82.257, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.098, "architecture_energy": 21.926, "architecture_maturity": 37.707, "architecture_confidence": 89.521, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.85, "rotation_up": 31.32, "upward_expansion": 56.85, "deceleration": 86.81, "rotation_down": 25.59, "downward_expansion": 18.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 1478.122656, 1481.261939, 1472.790768, 1456.561715 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1492.47998, "trend_reference": 1436.720044, "distance_from_trend": 0.038811, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1218.583338, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.224766, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.06606, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.071305, "excess_performance": 0.125972, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.038811, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026782, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.224766, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026093, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.040661, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066065, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.071305, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.380578, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3279, "relative_activity": 1.762808, "balance": 1.380578, "dry_up": 1.695339, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028345, "annualized_volatility": 0.142709, "from_high_reference": -0.015747, "from_low_reference": 0.140634 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1436.720044, "fair_value_reference": 1218.583338, "structural_low": 1342.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.006606, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.008364, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.034174, "worst_return": -0.039293, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.024148, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.006623, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.065317, "worst_return": -0.079372, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.064008, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.04487, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.147644, "worst_return": -0.18552, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.024208, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.000782, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.217172, "worst_return": -0.184037, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2023-12-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009161, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024616, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021639, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.011651, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.178189, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026388, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.002442, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055898, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", 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"typical_volume": 1751.15, "trend": 1433.851636, "fair_value": 1215.103385, "relative_strength": 2.51572, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.750532, "energy": 20.196486, "activity_lines": [ 1473.321997, 1478.956232, 1468.667524, 1452.779241 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1492.47998, "volume": 3279, "typical_volume": 1860.1, "trend": 1436.720044, "fair_value": 1218.583338, "relative_strength": 4.06606, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.098181, "energy": 21.926118, "activity_lines": [ 1478.122656, 1481.261939, 1472.790768, 1456.561715 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }