{ "ticker": { "uuid": "afe2ea42-f3ea-4bf3-bde6-1a3fb7dc635c", "symbol": "PQOC", "name": "PGIM NASDAQ-100 BUFFER 12 ETF - OCTOBER", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 80.103, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.737, "architecture_energy": 65.246, "architecture_maturity": 61.624, "architecture_confidence": 70.822, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.13, "rotation_up": 54.9, "upward_expansion": 84.71, "deceleration": 68.06, "rotation_down": 29.4, "downward_expansion": 11.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.22372, 31.142518, 30.917274, 30.399058 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 31.675, "trend_reference": 29.77486, "distance_from_trend": 0.063817, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.651131, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.145523, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.598899, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.109057, "excess_performance": -0.078397, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.063817, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030534, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.145523, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007115, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.045989, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036778, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.109057, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.162819, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10719, "relative_activity": 0.440639, "balance": 2.162819, "dry_up": 0.394382, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.012478, "annualized_volatility": 0.092591, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.172505 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.77486, "fair_value_reference": 27.651131, "structural_low": 27.1547, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.011335, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.014753, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.011335, "worst_return": 0.011335, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 31.045, "volume": 77052, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 31.32, "volume": 17254, "typical_volume": 23981.9, "trend": 29.453489, "fair_value": 27.476967, "relative_strength": -6.531261, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.364502, "energy": 75.765158, "activity_lines": [ 31.125953, 31.05166, 30.496603, 29.994685 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 30.9823, "volume": 9342, "typical_volume": 23851.95, "trend": 29.533358, "fair_value": 27.520243, "relative_strength": -3.383376, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.477188, "energy": 66.07396, "activity_lines": [ 31.089847, 31.050798, 30.60553, 30.093318 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.825, "volume": 6892, "typical_volume": 23740.25, "trend": 29.5999, "fair_value": 27.560545, "relative_strength": -2.195075, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.9354, "energy": 55.908686, "activity_lines": [ 31.000487, 31.017476, 30.687785, 30.17665 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.0553, "volume": 11422, "typical_volume": 24033.35, "trend": 29.683083, "fair_value": 27.60265, "relative_strength": -1.861926, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.498802, "energy": 51.89424, "activity_lines": [ 31.013893, 31.024573, 30.779967, 30.270547 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.675, "volume": 10719, "typical_volume": 24326.05, "trend": 29.77486, "fair_value": 27.651131, "relative_strength": -4.598899, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.736502, "energy": 65.246154, "activity_lines": [ 31.22372, 31.142518, 30.917274, 30.399058 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }