{ "ticker": { "uuid": "afe3e765-99f8-4850-bebc-f5a950c74489", "symbol": "TATACHEM", "name": "Tata Chemicals Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.725, "architecture_energy": 46.295, "architecture_maturity": 5.893, "architecture_confidence": 74.594, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.5, "rotation_up": 15.34, "upward_expansion": 23.96, "deceleration": 50.21, "rotation_down": 65.84, "downward_expansion": 53.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 682.396655, 696.977416, 711.522115, 708.161411 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 673.549988, "trend_reference": 707.998873, "distance_from_trend": -0.048657, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 919.443848, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.267438, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.231262, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.043117, "excess_performance": 0.000592, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.048657, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03568, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.267438, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086016, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.122313, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088712, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.043117, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.082056, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5083164, "relative_activity": 0.856664, "balance": 1.082056, "dry_up": 0.429882, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061914, "annualized_volatility": 0.346019, "from_high_reference": -0.343934, "from_low_reference": 0.160693 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 707.998873, "fair_value_reference": 919.443848, "structural_low": 580.299988, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.021253, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.004655, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.108191, "worst_return": -0.097949, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.007158, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.128502, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.037667, "worst_return": -0.179699, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.087591, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.037141, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.098242, "worst_return": -0.103, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027053, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.064438, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029813, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013349, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.067242, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": 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-12.175965, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.425042, "energy": 38.104472, "activity_lines": [ 689.313322, 704.472519, 714.715765, 710.541769 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 673.549988, "volume": 5083164, "typical_volume": 5933673.8, "trend": 707.998873, "fair_value": 919.443848, "relative_strength": -12.231262, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.724996, "energy": 46.295453, "activity_lines": [ 682.396655, 696.977416, 711.522115, 708.161411 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }