{ "ticker": { "uuid": "afe6a9ae-4401-47bb-899f-8e5f2249213b", "symbol": "UOG", "name": "United Oil & Gas Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 57.059, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -8.497, "architecture_energy": 12.257, "architecture_maturity": 16.885, "architecture_confidence": 44.528, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.9, "rotation_up": 23.96, "upward_expansion": 21.51, "deceleration": 56.09, "rotation_down": 42.25, "downward_expansion": 35.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.001917, 0.001936, 0.002002, 0.001996 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.00195, "trend_reference": 0.001929, "distance_from_trend": 0.011061, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.002815, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.307188, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.265481, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.114286, "excess_performance": 0.06305, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011061, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.138528, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.307188, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.124346, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.052655, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.222122, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.114286, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.433362, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 40555337, "relative_activity": 0.285235, "balance": 0.433362, "dry_up": 0.582043, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.18146, "annualized_volatility": 0.805389, "from_high_reference": -0.25, "from_low_reference": 10.079545 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.001929, "fair_value_reference": 0.002815, "structural_low": 0.0016, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.076389, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.060184, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.206897, "worst_return": -0.339623, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.163043, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.146979, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.619048, "worst_return": -0.430556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.053922, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.109443, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.409524, "worst_return": -0.561404, "sufficient": 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.105263, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.52381, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.785714, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.179487, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.264706, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": 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0.002009, 0.002053, 0.001989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.00185, "volume": 205315643, "typical_volume": 173154179.1, "trend": 0.00186, "fair_value": 0.003025, "relative_strength": 2.734448, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.023967, "energy": 3.538145, "activity_lines": [ 0.00197, 0.001973, 0.002036, 0.00199 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0019, "volume": 40124982, "typical_volume": 161095773.5, "trend": 0.001885, "fair_value": 0.002953, "relative_strength": 4.287751, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.830159, "energy": 10.468705, "activity_lines": [ 0.001953, 0.001952, 0.002022, 0.001992 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0019, "volume": 45028959, "typical_volume": 150558691.5, "trend": 0.001909, "fair_value": 0.002885, "relative_strength": 2.976515, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.726221, "energy": 8.696486, "activity_lines": [ 0.00193, 0.001936, 0.00201, 0.001993 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.00195, "volume": 40555337, "typical_volume": 142182344.35, "trend": 0.001929, "fair_value": 0.002815, "relative_strength": 5.265481, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.496868, "energy": 12.257015, "activity_lines": [ 0.001917, 0.001936, 0.002002, 0.001996 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }