{ "ticker": { "uuid": "afea1034-c0e9-4910-907e-647cb3af5493", "symbol": "RLIA", "name": "Realia Business, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 63.134, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.163, "architecture_energy": 31.73, "architecture_maturity": 40.607, "architecture_confidence": 89.749, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.87, "rotation_up": 15.96, "upward_expansion": 5.15, "deceleration": 43.28, "rotation_down": 52.95, "downward_expansion": 80.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.022, 1.024818, 1.027714, 1.029462 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.025, "trend_reference": 1.032833, "distance_from_trend": -0.007584, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.989944, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.035412, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.493968, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.02381, "excess_performance": -0.14824, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007584, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002816, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.035412, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001414, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.13494, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059745, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.02381, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.625031, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44851, "relative_activity": 0.733644, "balance": 1.625031, "dry_up": 1.1053, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030019, "annualized_volatility": 0.119484, "from_high_reference": -0.068182, "from_low_reference": 0.111714 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.032833, "fair_value_reference": 0.989944, "structural_low": 0.99, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.004831, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": -0.008342, "regime_survival": 0.588235, "best_return": 0.125732, "worst_return": -0.023585, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.033859, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.047148, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.125732, "worst_return": -0.052209, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.046772, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.080454, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.172515, "worst_return": -0.081132, 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"Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.880555, "energy": 17.978132, "activity_lines": [ 1.027, 1.028091, 1.02981, 1.031624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.02, "volume": 92941, "typical_volume": 59265.95, "trend": 1.032667, "fair_value": 0.989382, "relative_strength": -12.061604, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.340027, "energy": 32.867584, "activity_lines": [ 1.023667, 1.026091, 1.028857, 1.030839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.02, "volume": 109284, "typical_volume": 62513.8, "trend": 1.033667, "fair_value": 0.989693, "relative_strength": -12.562413, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.23989, "energy": 34.8076, "activity_lines": [ 1.021, 1.024818, 1.028024, 1.030022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.025, "volume": 44851, "typical_volume": 61134.55, "trend": 1.032833, "fair_value": 0.989944, "relative_strength": -13.493968, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.162898, "energy": 31.730123, "activity_lines": [ 1.022, 1.024818, 1.027714, 1.029462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }