{ "ticker": { "uuid": "afea9b88-5b14-4f3d-8be0-547d25fc27d4", "symbol": "600109", "name": "Sinolink Securities Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 89.361, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -23.465, "architecture_energy": 9.852, "architecture_maturity": 66.523, "architecture_confidence": 75.386, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.93, "rotation_up": 27.8, "upward_expansion": 22.63, "deceleration": 32.44, "rotation_down": 34.3, "downward_expansion": 56.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.610464, 8.579482, 8.590861, 8.637893 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 8.73, "trend_reference": 8.768764, "distance_from_trend": -0.004421, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.729766, "distance_from_fair_value": 2.7e-05, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.460776, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.063305, "excess_performance": -0.020101, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004421, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032715, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 2.7e-05, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033962, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.044608, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060004, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.063305, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.414693, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 100918657, "relative_activity": 0.792292, "balance": 0.414693, "dry_up": 1.131321, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057724, "annualized_volatility": 0.219103, "from_high_reference": -0.179511, "from_low_reference": 0.105063 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.768764, "fair_value_reference": 8.729766, "structural_low": 7.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.002097, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.004626, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.275813, "worst_return": -0.157292, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.003436, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": 0.005949, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.191868, "worst_return": -0.224835, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.028289, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.025899, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.282471, "worst_return": -0.170023, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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[ 8.55732, 8.537717, 8.577065, 8.641619 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.73, "volume": 100918657, "typical_volume": 127375530.45, "trend": 8.768764, "fair_value": 8.729766, "relative_strength": -4.460776, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.464692, "energy": 9.851715, "activity_lines": [ 8.610464, 8.579482, 8.590861, 8.637893 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }