{ "ticker": { "uuid": "afeb15c8-f085-44ea-8a08-97871c96824e", "symbol": "SXLV", "name": "State Street SPDR S&P U.S. Health Care Select Sector UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 88.727, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.439, "architecture_energy": 59.099, "architecture_maturity": 30.783, "architecture_confidence": 71.295, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.31, "rotation_up": 67.66, "upward_expansion": 85.43, "deceleration": 64.27, "rotation_down": 17.24, "downward_expansion": 9.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.176667, 43.772727, 42.229191, 41.534893 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 44.305, "trend_reference": 40.985833, "distance_from_trend": 0.080983, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 39.47718, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.122294, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.908667, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.079425, "excess_performance": -0.091467, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.080983, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020424, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.122294, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.152593, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.049087, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082077, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.079425, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.616558, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 75128, "relative_activity": 1.471848, "balance": 1.616558, "dry_up": 1.003143, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033309, "annualized_volatility": 0.16725, "from_high_reference": -0.038729, "from_low_reference": 0.289811 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.985833, "fair_value_reference": 39.47718, "structural_low": 37.689999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.00212, "positive_rate": 0.515152, "directional_follow_through": 0.515152, "median_excess_return": -0.022906, "regime_survival": 0.69697, "best_return": 0.086532, "worst_return": -0.050418, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.008939, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.028212, "regime_survival": 0.307692, "best_return": 0.042364, "worst_return": -0.170307, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.020729, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.081314, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.113325, "worst_return": -0.16717, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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40.260333, "fair_value": 39.117436, "relative_strength": -12.068035, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.274528, "energy": 35.808108, "activity_lines": [ 40.699667, 39.990091, 39.714715, 39.941592 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 43.66, "volume": 1637, "typical_volume": 59742.55, "trend": 40.324, "fair_value": 39.165192, "relative_strength": -2.12974, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 54.129353, "energy": 71.787915, "activity_lines": [ 41.744, 40.750364, 40.073667, 40.160925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 44.34, "volume": 1272, "typical_volume": 56999.75, "trend": 40.446833, "fair_value": 39.223365, "relative_strength": -3.423966, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 63.308385, "energy": 83.813177, "activity_lines": [ 42.766667, 41.55, 40.484929, 40.420022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 43.814999, "volume": 16792, "typical_volume": 56886.25, "trend": 40.562, "fair_value": 39.280417, "relative_strength": -4.093473, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.224416, "energy": 91.057069, "activity_lines": [ 43.299333, 42.14, 40.831453, 40.637323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 44.195, "volume": 62792, "typical_volume": 57366.3, "trend": 40.675667, "fair_value": 39.329038, "relative_strength": -1.866851, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.448047, "energy": 90.418031, "activity_lines": [ 43.803, 42.701636, 41.200738, 40.87171 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 44.5, "volume": 24171, "typical_volume": 52372.3, "trend": 40.8015, "fair_value": 39.379776, "relative_strength": -1.006334, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.200603, "energy": 88.447401, "activity_lines": [ 44.204333, 43.202, 41.586548, 41.118441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.855, "volume": 42724, "typical_volume": 51141.8, "trend": 40.9035, "fair_value": 39.429647, "relative_strength": -3.075493, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.18895, "energy": 61.572171, "activity_lines": [ 44.122, 43.482091, 41.894167, 41.315441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.305, "volume": 75128, "typical_volume": 51043.3, "trend": 40.985833, "fair_value": 39.47718, "relative_strength": -4.908667, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.439363, "energy": 59.099146, "activity_lines": [ 44.176667, 43.772727, 42.229191, 41.534893 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }