{ "ticker": { "uuid": "afefb48b-96f0-4909-b412-f6b29c5f5652", "symbol": "OGN", "name": "Organon & Co", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.088, "architecture_energy": 93.031, "architecture_maturity": 73.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.51, "rotation_up": 62.55, "upward_expansion": 97.67, "deceleration": 41.83, "rotation_down": 30.0, "downward_expansion": 22.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.554667, 13.53, 13.183953, 12.039417 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 13.6, "trend_reference": 10.683136, "distance_from_trend": 0.273034, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.363677, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.017684, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 25.301359, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.663191, "excess_performance": 0.537566, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.273034, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.242216, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.017684, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049366, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.253014, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093468, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.663191, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.418976, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10879386, "relative_activity": 0.351378, "balance": 2.418976, "dry_up": 0.399315, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.006929, "annualized_volatility": 0.646659, "from_high_reference": -0.000735, "from_low_reference": 1.393744 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.683136, "fair_value_reference": 13.363677, "structural_low": 5.681476, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.002251, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.001845, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.083573, "worst_return": -0.141834, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.020255, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.030735, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.116162, "worst_return": -0.060681, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.048432, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.050995, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.048432, "worst_return": 0.048432, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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13.52, "volume": 10277852, "typical_volume": 31485454.95, "trend": 10.073464, "fair_value": 13.480439, "relative_strength": 30.97755, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.258303, "energy": 86.955433, "activity_lines": [ 13.517333, 13.477818, 12.582598, 11.406273 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.52, "volume": 16218267, "typical_volume": 31591719.5, "trend": 10.285757, "fair_value": 13.441885, "relative_strength": 31.34332, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.561724, "energy": 88.778092, "activity_lines": [ 13.522667, 13.490727, 12.813128, 11.628631 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.55, "volume": 12078977, "typical_volume": 31349785.75, "trend": 10.497059, "fair_value": 13.407194, "relative_strength": 29.773204, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.01854, "energy": 90.556247, "activity_lines": [ 13.532, 13.506909, 13.013325, 11.839227 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.6, "volume": 10879386, "typical_volume": 30962084.8, "trend": 10.683136, "fair_value": 13.363677, "relative_strength": 25.301359, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.088296, "energy": 93.030666, "activity_lines": [ 13.554667, 13.53, 13.183953, 12.039417 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }