{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aff5d6ea-41b3-4177-88f2-145dab440a6a", "symbol": "AHLA", "name": "Alibaba Group Holding Limited", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -7.698, "architecture_energy": 22.498, "architecture_maturity": 98.474, "architecture_confidence": 45.609, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.61, "rotation_up": 43.7, "upward_expansion": 23.73, "deceleration": 41.32, "rotation_down": 16.57, "downward_expansion": 55.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 105.020002, 99.767704, 102.027228, 105.611277 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 110.800003, "trend_reference": 112.879753, "distance_from_trend": -0.018424, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 95.317521, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.162431, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.718826, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.184094, "excess_performance": -0.358341, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.018424, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092891, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.162431, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107247, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.267188, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094814, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.184094, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.434454, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1798, "relative_activity": 1.642834, "balance": 2.434454, "dry_up": 2.456713, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070824, "annualized_volatility": 0.431588, "from_high_reference": -0.318573, "from_low_reference": 0.388471 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 112.879753, "fair_value_reference": 95.317521, 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-32.894038, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.122696, "energy": 39.512329, "activity_lines": [ 96.533333, 95.883072, 101.348109, 106.336836 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 105.800003, "volume": 2367, "typical_volume": 1049.1, "trend": 113.493086, "fair_value": 95.130712, "relative_strength": -28.218212, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.324362, "energy": 27.840289, "activity_lines": [ 100.680001, 97.322998, 101.420526, 105.785024 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 110.800003, "volume": 1798, "typical_volume": 1094.45, "trend": 112.879753, "fair_value": 95.317521, "relative_strength": -26.718826, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.697768, "energy": 22.498268, "activity_lines": [ 105.020002, 99.767704, 102.027228, 105.611277 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }