{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aff856b7-c887-45a5-9dc5-56a896fe86ca", "symbol": "ALLIGO-B", "name": "Alligo AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 52.435, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 35.481, "architecture_energy": 26.538, "architecture_maturity": 25.467, "architecture_confidence": 47.259, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.88, "rotation_up": 57.15, "upward_expansion": 66.58, "deceleration": 62.37, "rotation_down": 13.88, "downward_expansion": 12.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 136.533336, 134.174548, 135.097618, 134.178733 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 136.0, "trend_reference": 132.937614, "distance_from_trend": 0.023036, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 122.555037, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.109706, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.946223, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.115933, "excess_performance": 0.054439, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.023036, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033303, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.109706, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048177, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.029462, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096821, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.115933, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.310241, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32294, "relative_activity": 0.602703, "balance": 0.310241, "dry_up": 0.62913, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059694, "annualized_volatility": 0.311801, "from_high_reference": -0.071556, "from_low_reference": 0.343896 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 132.937614, "fair_value_reference": 122.555037, "structural_low": 111.436263, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.018061, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.020803, "regime_survival": 0.357143, "best_return": 0.119181, "worst_return": -0.167386, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.131457, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.084186, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.299814, "worst_return": -0.255656, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.109013, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.071089, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.27933, "worst_return": -0.238244, 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-26.143181, "energy": 31.739918, "activity_lines": [ 128.200001, 132.352332, 133.643809, 132.897032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 134.600006, "volume": 30862, "typical_volume": 52824.95, "trend": 132.066113, "fair_value": 121.918683, "relative_strength": 1.369477, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.118919, "energy": 20.140142, "activity_lines": [ 129.760003, 132.272559, 133.801535, 133.091694 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 139.800003, "volume": 24648, "typical_volume": 52348.85, "trend": 132.591552, "fair_value": 122.125357, "relative_strength": 3.4475, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.071223, "energy": 13.528405, "activity_lines": [ 133.120003, 133.22182, 134.453888, 133.590654 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 138.600006, "volume": 47036, "typical_volume": 53053.05, "trend": 132.893232, "fair_value": 122.334015, "relative_strength": 0.950089, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.623624, "energy": 20.544545, "activity_lines": [ 135.706671, 133.949094, 134.922518, 133.978296 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 136.0, "volume": 32294, "typical_volume": 53581.95, "trend": 132.937614, "fair_value": 122.555037, "relative_strength": -2.946223, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.481222, "energy": 26.538236, "activity_lines": [ 136.533336, 134.174548, 135.097618, 134.178733 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }