{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aff9693b-07bc-4601-ac33-69755fd672cf", "symbol": "NBGX", "name": "NEUBERGER GROWTH ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 59.762, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.437, "architecture_energy": 41.932, "architecture_maturity": 46.892, "architecture_confidence": 50.819, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.28, "rotation_up": 44.36, "upward_expansion": 71.8, "deceleration": 69.23, "rotation_down": 27.15, "downward_expansion": 9.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.308107, 29.20176, 29.076132, 28.558865 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 30.1817, "trend_reference": 28.012023, "distance_from_trend": 0.077455, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.474843, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.140014, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.615972, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.118595, "excess_performance": -0.00703, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.077455, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013887, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.140014, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014053, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.03616, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000627, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.118595, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.71274, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1860, "relative_activity": 1.049513, "balance": 1.71274, "dry_up": 1.909437, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025555, "annualized_volatility": 0.172492, "from_high_reference": -0.001267, "from_low_reference": 0.227088 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.012023, "fair_value_reference": 26.474843, "structural_low": 24.5962, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.005178, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.018813, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.005178, "worst_return": -0.005178, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "close": 28.6513, "volume": 915, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "close": 29.2577, "volume": 146, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "close": 29.2959, "volume": 25, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", 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"regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 29.4773, "volume": 303, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 28.6401, "volume": 2744, "typical_volume": 1594.5, "trend": 27.7807, "fair_value": 26.268325, "relative_strength": -3.952716, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.735631, "energy": 35.601935, "activity_lines": [ 29.030267, 29.138276, 28.396618, 28.0345 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 29.1568, "volume": 4324, "typical_volume": 1650.6, "trend": 27.811662, "fair_value": 26.303985, "relative_strength": -4.152432, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.411073, "energy": 34.724372, "activity_lines": [ 29.027113, 29.149847, 28.532829, 28.123281 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 29.6595, "volume": 2564, "typical_volume": 1560.25, "trend": 27.871757, "fair_value": 26.344906, "relative_strength": -3.680448, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.141326, "energy": 48.788455, "activity_lines": [ 29.242987, 29.239702, 28.70444, 28.242496 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.9723, "volume": 6553, "typical_volume": 1475.75, "trend": 27.91085, "fair_value": 26.376562, "relative_strength": -4.282499, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.680275, "energy": 36.080417, "activity_lines": [ 29.181827, 29.18628, 28.797527, 28.313499 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.4918, "volume": 597, "typical_volume": 1491.65, "trend": 27.917693, "fair_value": 26.401743, "relative_strength": -5.141612, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.2667, "energy": 30.748738, "activity_lines": [ 28.952027, 29.050684, 28.834328, 28.350979 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.9084, "volume": 4526, "typical_volume": 1705.65, "trend": 27.950183, "fair_value": 26.431233, "relative_strength": -4.606937, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.984853, "energy": 25.500228, "activity_lines": [ 28.926793, 29.005453, 28.90139, 28.414896 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.1817, "volume": 1860, "typical_volume": 1772.25, "trend": 28.012023, "fair_value": 26.474843, "relative_strength": -3.615972, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.436668, "energy": 41.932359, "activity_lines": [ 29.308107, 29.20176, 29.076132, 28.558865 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }