{ "ticker": { "uuid": "affd0d81-3159-48fb-b8fd-eb5eb9e0b7af", "symbol": "HLVLTD", "name": "HLV Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.368, "architecture_energy": 67.549, "architecture_maturity": 12.73, "architecture_confidence": 86.209, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.11, "rotation_up": 10.66, "upward_expansion": 15.0, "deceleration": 37.46, "rotation_down": 71.79, "downward_expansion": 90.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.185333, 7.371273, 7.665, 7.741462 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 7.24, "trend_reference": 7.905, "distance_from_trend": -0.084124, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.844808, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.570194, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.731317, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.133971, "excess_performance": -0.090262, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.084124, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083088, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.570194, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093403, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.197313, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084096, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.133971, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.872057, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1001864, "relative_activity": 0.753745, "balance": 0.872057, "dry_up": 0.628205, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071079, "annualized_volatility": 0.527636, "from_high_reference": -0.425397, "from_low_reference": 0.292857 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.905, "fair_value_reference": 16.844808, "structural_low": 5.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.017522, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.607143, "median_excess_return": -0.019713, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.158163, "worst_return": -0.164208, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.040645, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.058187, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.362245, "worst_return": -0.281108, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.167045, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.142996, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.403061, "worst_return": -0.352812, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-07-07", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 1.187266, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.244541, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.120072, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.257031, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.100054, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.134092, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.179433, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.303601, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.207735, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025496, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 13.6, "volume": 2371177, "typical_volume": 3356076.05, "trend": 11.62, "fair_value": 9.284936, "relative_strength": 12.963649, "stage": 2, "regime": 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"volume": 731943, "typical_volume": 1555950.1, "trend": 8.232333, "fair_value": 17.016667, "relative_strength": -18.633409, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.185556, "energy": 37.184461, "activity_lines": [ 7.708667, 7.804, 7.916286, 7.986688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.17, "volume": 968976, "typical_volume": 1529383.8, "trend": 8.139333, "fair_value": 16.974167, "relative_strength": -22.504842, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.109306, "energy": 57.97955, "activity_lines": [ 7.515333, 7.664909, 7.850952, 7.918151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.06, "volume": 593864, "typical_volume": 1491093.4, "trend": 8.051, "fair_value": 16.931603, "relative_strength": -21.014549, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.986308, "energy": 67.97826, "activity_lines": [ 7.328667, 7.54, 7.778857, 7.848516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.12, "volume": 775292, "typical_volume": 1432798.45, "trend": 7.968333, "fair_value": 16.887179, "relative_strength": -21.404455, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.9347, "energy": 70.031379, "activity_lines": [ 7.213333, 7.437273, 7.716, 7.788452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.24, "volume": 1001864, "typical_volume": 1329182.1, "trend": 7.905, "fair_value": 16.844808, "relative_strength": -19.731317, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.367957, "energy": 67.549216, "activity_lines": [ 7.185333, 7.371273, 7.665, 7.741462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }