{ "ticker": { "uuid": "affd7339-de58-4331-ae7e-5fe40b51ea57", "symbol": "601966", "name": "Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.431, "architecture_energy": 40.564, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 92.037, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.26, "rotation_up": 27.85, "upward_expansion": 20.14, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 35.23, "downward_expansion": 67.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.19, 11.042392, 11.576083, 12.247334 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 11.19, "trend_reference": 13.132342, "distance_from_trend": -0.147905, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.689333, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.329512, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.518914, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.257465, "excess_performance": -0.214261, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.147905, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089427, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.329512, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085204, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.195189, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009422, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.257465, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.329675, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 55258595, "relative_activity": 1.308341, "balance": 0.329675, "dry_up": 1.43538, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060922, "annualized_volatility": 0.237059, "from_high_reference": -0.307166, "from_low_reference": 0.101378 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.132342, "fair_value_reference": 16.689333, "structural_low": 10.16, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.011291, "positive_rate": 0.551724, "directional_follow_through": 0.448276, "median_excess_return": 0.000828, "regime_survival": 0.758621, "best_return": 0.191085, "worst_return": -0.205914, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.040134, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.007286, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.629124, "worst_return": -0.448137, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.020756, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.031822, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.125185, "worst_return": -0.268358, "sufficient": true }, { 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"volume": 64915569, "typical_volume": 43274927.4, "trend": 13.478342, "fair_value": 16.886152, "relative_strength": -19.040619, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.098608, "energy": 67.778954, "activity_lines": [ 10.71982, 11.056813, 11.947992, 12.654518 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.96, "volume": 64529038, "typical_volume": 42306340.65, "trend": 13.349342, "fair_value": 16.818401, "relative_strength": -19.744656, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.323782, "energy": 64.005789, "activity_lines": [ 10.814667, 10.973932, 11.778705, 12.492045 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.61, "volume": 57793498, "typical_volume": 42305950.55, "trend": 13.243676, "fair_value": 16.75573, "relative_strength": -14.799736, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.818604, "energy": 52.599231, "activity_lines": [ 11.12, 11.040509, 11.689751, 12.379829 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.19, "volume": 55258595, "typical_volume": 42235618.85, "trend": 13.132342, "fair_value": 16.689333, "relative_strength": -19.518914, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.430598, "energy": 40.5635, "activity_lines": [ 11.19, 11.042392, 11.576083, 12.247334 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }