{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b01b6078-14c6-4231-9c85-1055ec05bb2d", "symbol": "ADNT", "name": "Adient PLC", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.134, "architecture_energy": 26.341, "architecture_maturity": 25.694, "architecture_confidence": 75.259, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.0, "rotation_up": 20.56, "upward_expansion": 6.7, "deceleration": 55.76, "rotation_down": 40.75, "downward_expansion": 66.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.133333, 20.155818, 20.735238, 21.029935 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 19.42, "trend_reference": 21.567333, "distance_from_trend": -0.099564, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.966987, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.189719, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.634858, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.266062, "excess_performance": -0.391687, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.099564, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016943, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.189719, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083861, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.206349, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.15383, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.266062, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.73673, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6606908, "relative_activity": 1.396291, "balance": 0.73673, "dry_up": 1.00271, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.114256, "annualized_volatility": 0.399099, "from_high_reference": -0.289165, "from_low_reference": 0.098416 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.567333, "fair_value_reference": 23.966987, "structural_low": 17.68, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.483871, "directional_follow_through": 0.483871, "median_excess_return": 0.005948, "regime_survival": 0.741935, "best_return": 0.410577, "worst_return": -0.26915, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.046676, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.053359, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.808274, "worst_return": -0.266628, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.066218, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.110696, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.277271, "worst_return": -0.319051, 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false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.213544, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003083, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.134979, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.195767, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": 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"down", "direction": -50.802761, "energy": 52.025932, "activity_lines": [ 19.936667, 20.742545, 21.054333, 21.385484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.79, "volume": 4103145, "typical_volume": 4699452.25, "trend": 21.510667, "fair_value": 24.381987, "relative_strength": -17.114889, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.092257, "energy": 56.962491, "activity_lines": [ 19.722667, 20.480909, 20.922333, 21.274925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.4, "volume": 3984028, "typical_volume": 4710339.9, "trend": 21.54, "fair_value": 24.243526, "relative_strength": -13.618221, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.294732, "energy": 48.833643, "activity_lines": [ 19.904667, 20.384545, 20.87, 21.203269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.04, "volume": 4284238, "typical_volume": 4682983.1, "trend": 21.606667, "fair_value": 24.094615, "relative_strength": -11.520913, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.819257, "energy": 23.423964, "activity_lines": [ 20.323333, 20.412545, 20.88281, 21.171011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.42, "volume": 6606908, "typical_volume": 4731754.4, "trend": 21.567333, "fair_value": 23.966987, "relative_strength": -20.634858, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.134361, "energy": 26.341474, "activity_lines": [ 20.133333, 20.155818, 20.735238, 21.029935 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }