{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b01e977f-886b-4da7-8943-e1f0d234a260", "symbol": "JUHE", "name": "JPMorgan ETFs (Ireland) ICAV - US Research Enhanced Index Equity Active UCITS ETF - EUR Hedged (acc)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 69.962, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.432, "architecture_energy": 60.92, "architecture_maturity": 52.836, "architecture_confidence": 65.91, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.43, "rotation_up": 55.38, "upward_expansion": 79.99, "deceleration": 66.69, "rotation_down": 25.95, "downward_expansion": 8.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 59.202666, 58.853273, 58.416572, 57.444301 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 60.799999, "trend_reference": 56.357667, "distance_from_trend": 0.078824, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 47.546827, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.278739, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.183994, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.109894, "excess_performance": -0.060998, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.078824, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028443, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.278739, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005776, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.05184, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022223, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.109894, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.815472, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3569, "relative_activity": 0.599263, "balance": 2.815472, "dry_up": 0.588517, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017548, "annualized_volatility": 0.125057, "from_high_reference": -0.001642, "from_low_reference": 0.203722 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 56.357667, "fair_value_reference": 47.546827, "structural_low": 50.509998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.012059, "positive_rate": 0.653846, "directional_follow_through": 0.653846, "median_excess_return": -0.002177, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.05548, "worst_return": -0.055647, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.047193, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.005479, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.094962, "worst_return": -0.073188, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.074437, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.026383, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.161638, "worst_return": -0.036328, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"trend": 55.919, "fair_value": 47.119199, "relative_strength": -6.181809, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.869884, "energy": 49.023583, "activity_lines": [ 58.539333, 58.54691, 57.73181, 56.846624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 58.32, "volume": 6423, "typical_volume": 7158.05, "trend": 56.038, "fair_value": 47.255, "relative_strength": -6.021598, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.658819, "energy": 46.941906, "activity_lines": [ 58.488667, 58.492546, 57.905429, 57.001527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 58.27, "volume": 1596, "typical_volume": 6292.65, "trend": 56.169, "fair_value": 47.391603, "relative_strength": -6.575034, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.035254, "energy": 44.035532, "activity_lines": [ 58.444667, 58.439455, 58.05381, 57.145527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 60.799999, "volume": 3569, "typical_volume": 5955.65, "trend": 56.357667, "fair_value": 47.546827, "relative_strength": -5.183994, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.432385, "energy": 60.919665, "activity_lines": [ 59.202666, 58.853273, 58.416572, 57.444301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }