{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "b024f5fa-3aa4-4e62-8015-b20bfe5d04a9",
    "symbol": "FCAP",
    "name": "First Capital Inc",
    "exchange": "NASDAQ",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "QQQ",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 45.341,
    "architecture_energy": 27.429,
    "architecture_maturity": 51.303,
    "architecture_confidence": 91.865,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 36.02,
        "rotation_up": 34.08,
        "upward_expansion": 62.57,
        "deceleration": 87.49,
        "rotation_down": 25.51,
        "downward_expansion": 14.9
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        62.685333,
        63.057675,
        61.300941,
        58.94247
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 64.09,
    "trend_reference": 56.247997,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.139418,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 38.306702,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.673075,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 7.868308,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.196065,
    "excess_performance": 0.008612,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.139418,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.065036,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.673075,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.066011,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.078683,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.072206,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.196065,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.262675,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 78184,
      "relative_activity": 2.074592,
      "balance": 1.262675,
      "dry_up": 1.970397,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.079513,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.321678,
      "from_high_reference": -0.086947,
      "from_low_reference": 0.936223
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 56.247997,
      "fair_value_reference": 38.306702,
      "structural_low": 45.838626,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 10,
        "median_return": -0.063401,
        "positive_rate": 0.4,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.4,
        "median_excess_return": -0.051183,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.113836,
        "worst_return": -0.137972,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.036273,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": -0.049191,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.118336,
        "worst_return": -0.135749,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.207352,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": 0.107206,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.463722,
        "worst_return": -0.125497,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.085854,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.126733,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.379822,
        "worst_return": -0.330662,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-12-20",
        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.067734,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.200778,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-06-20",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.159436,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-06-27",
        "end": "2025-08-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.151969,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2025-09-05",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.215829,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-09-12",
        "end": "2025-09-19",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.058688,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-09-26",
        "end": "2025-10-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.129678,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-10-24",
        "end": "2025-11-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.164725,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2026-01-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.0186,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-01-23",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.031756,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "end": "2026-04-10",
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        "return": 0.09682,
        "active": false
      },
      {
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        "label": "Balance",
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        "return": 0.052477,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2026-07-17",
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        "return": 0.136507,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "start": "2026-07-24",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
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        "return": 0.055501,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
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          51.82405
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 54.297774,
        "volume": 22189,
        "typical_volume": 43073.2,
        "trend": 50.783686,
        "fair_value": 35.293754,
        "relative_strength": 0.647685,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 46.607256,
        "energy": 34.474786,
        "activity_lines": [
          53.725869,
          52.075302,
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          52.068948
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 57.084316,
        "volume": 16259,
        "typical_volume": 28568.1,
        "trend": 51.295501,
        "fair_value": 35.520865,
        "relative_strength": 0.647751,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 62.103265,
        "energy": 59.612568,
        "activity_lines": [
          55.036207,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 53.9196,
        "volume": 14146,
        "typical_volume": 26757.3,
        "trend": 51.780869,
        "fair_value": 35.72156,
        "relative_strength": -4.331687,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.795176,
        "energy": 50.030853,
        "activity_lines": [
          54.807313,
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          52.439588,
          52.644737
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 54.048975,
        "volume": 27089,
        "typical_volume": 26920.4,
        "trend": 52.174778,
        "fair_value": 35.923432,
        "relative_strength": -4.841752,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 45.237913,
        "energy": 41.265564,
        "activity_lines": [
          54.619553,
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          52.609785,
          52.791066
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 61.512929,
        "volume": 30610,
        "typical_volume": 26387.15,
        "trend": 52.813222,
        "fair_value": 36.172398,
        "relative_strength": 5.481252,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 81.645217,
        "energy": 67.963532,
        "activity_lines": [
          56.932383,
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          53.50778,
          53.393527
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 65.822118,
        "volume": 29476,
        "typical_volume": 25627.15,
        "trend": 53.560866,
        "fair_value": 36.427827,
        "relative_strength": 17.876237,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 86.927391,
        "energy": 80.017084,
        "activity_lines": [
          60.14885,
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          54.765755,
          54.232811
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 64.19,
        "volume": 23401,
        "typical_volume": 25901.6,
        "trend": 54.204252,
        "fair_value": 36.66375,
        "relative_strength": 12.246895,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 76.944271,
        "energy": 83.982519,
        "activity_lines": [
          62.052987,
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          55.788356,
          54.918562
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 63.0,
        "volume": 20058,
        "typical_volume": 25781.75,
        "trend": 54.74959,
        "fair_value": 36.889769,
        "relative_strength": 7.214578,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.383506,
        "energy": 82.35819,
        "activity_lines": [
          63.086746,
          60.205109,
          56.631443,
          55.486029
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 66.11,
        "volume": 103094,
        "typical_volume": 27953.95,
        "trend": 55.313646,
        "fair_value": 37.133797,
        "relative_strength": 17.253343,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 73.934321,
        "energy": 84.858912,
        "activity_lines": [
          64.551811,
          61.649922,
          57.748104,
          56.218959
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 64.69,
        "volume": 39887,
        "typical_volume": 28640.3,
        "trend": 55.804457,
        "fair_value": 37.352674,
        "relative_strength": 13.379546,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.19642,
        "energy": 72.183956,
        "activity_lines": [
          64.739475,
          62.620699,
          58.669878,
          56.823885
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 61.99,
        "volume": 26897,
        "typical_volume": 29036.05,
        "trend": 55.71919,
        "fair_value": 37.562122,
        "relative_strength": 6.493659,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 60.054206,
        "energy": 49.380399,
        "activity_lines": [
          63.815333,
          62.897504,
          59.272303,
          57.222952
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 61.28,
        "volume": 64212,
        "typical_volume": 30927.7,
        "trend": 55.569064,
        "fair_value": 37.752078,
        "relative_strength": 9.319831,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 55.909548,
        "energy": 41.47638,
        "activity_lines": [
          62.91,
          62.90536,
          59.764162,
          57.581714
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 60.72,
        "volume": 81737,
        "typical_volume": 33567.65,
        "trend": 55.620077,
        "fair_value": 37.922453,
        "relative_strength": 9.468825,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 40.306245,
        "energy": 27.031023,
        "activity_lines": [
          62.012,
          62.735112,
          60.150033,
          57.914033
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 63.28,
        "volume": 72896,
        "typical_volume": 36149.35,
        "trend": 55.809151,
        "fair_value": 38.110698,
        "relative_strength": 12.663192,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 41.526534,
        "energy": 24.568239,
        "activity_lines": [
          62.119333,
          62.906676,
          60.726855,
          58.408221
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 64.09,
        "volume": 78184,
        "typical_volume": 37686.45,
        "trend": 56.247997,
        "fair_value": 38.306702,
        "relative_strength": 7.868308,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 45.340595,
        "energy": 27.429126,
        "activity_lines": [
          62.685333,
          63.057675,
          61.300941,
          58.94247
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}