{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b029b003-ebec-4b1a-9a01-2e767ee84a7e", "symbol": "LCFE", "name": "WisdomTree Coffee 2x Daily Leveraged", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 49.624, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 46.014, "architecture_energy": 62.48, "architecture_maturity": 30.0, "architecture_confidence": 53.321, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.32, "rotation_up": 72.34, "upward_expansion": 62.73, "deceleration": 22.45, "rotation_down": 17.0, "downward_expansion": 21.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.993233, 2.777573, 2.500458, 2.45073 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3.1445, "trend_reference": 2.473077, "distance_from_trend": 0.271493, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.244712, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.400848, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.046185, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.324558, "excess_performance": 0.153666, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.271493, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130818, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.400848, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.400004, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.100462, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.283698, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.324558, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.879851, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 421932, "relative_activity": 1.81328, "balance": 0.879851, "dry_up": 2.505852, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.127935, "annualized_volatility": 0.648907, "from_high_reference": -0.330957, "from_low_reference": 0.896105 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.473077, "fair_value_reference": 2.244712, "structural_low": 1.6584, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.029132, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.001951, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.064706, "worst_return": -0.059814, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.068689, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.135363, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.264194, "worst_return": -0.53853, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.269113, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.303561, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.402558, "worst_return": -0.453531, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.7435, "volume": 299554, "typical_volume": 204732.75, "trend": 2.498427, "fair_value": 2.213539, "relative_strength": -18.393358, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.097565, "energy": 41.868815, "activity_lines": [ 2.794733, 2.515949, 2.361172, 2.373933 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.0305, "volume": 402347, "typical_volume": 219171.1, "trend": 2.48621, "fair_value": 2.228653, "relative_strength": -10.644658, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 43.56091, "energy": 64.348847, "activity_lines": [ 2.903867, 2.644865, 2.427142, 2.40826 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.1445, "volume": 421932, "typical_volume": 232689.9, "trend": 2.473077, "fair_value": 2.244712, "relative_strength": -10.046185, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 46.014105, "energy": 62.480301, "activity_lines": [ 2.993233, 2.777573, 2.500458, 2.45073 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }