{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b02a31d4-ae8e-4a4b-9f3d-570537eaa7ba", "symbol": "000721", "name": "Xi'an Catering Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.959, "architecture_energy": 29.943, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.194, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.97, "rotation_up": 27.92, "upward_expansion": 22.82, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 31.9, "downward_expansion": 63.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.198, 6.008727, 6.285333, 6.731806 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.47, "trend_reference": 7.416333, "distance_from_trend": -0.127601, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.047756, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.284906, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.654543, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.301296, "excess_performance": -0.308696, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.127601, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126016, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.284906, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060942, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.246545, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075167, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.301296, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.746353, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 98080748, "relative_activity": 2.194663, "balance": 0.746353, "dry_up": 1.885685, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077993, "annualized_volatility": 0.366642, "from_high_reference": -0.427434, "from_low_reference": 0.21161 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.416333, "fair_value_reference": 9.047756, "structural_low": 5.34, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.004065, "positive_rate": 0.407407, "directional_follow_through": 0.518519, "median_excess_return": -0.004919, "regime_survival": 0.851852, "best_return": 0.360061, "worst_return": -0.171587, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.052632, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.058697, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.2843, "worst_return": -0.266746, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.052632, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.078358, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.293696, "worst_return": -0.381206, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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-30.834233, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.708082, "energy": 66.911813, "activity_lines": [ 5.716, 5.886727, 6.46481, 6.99843 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.56, "volume": 42721842, "typical_volume": 36913316.0, "trend": 7.582667, "fair_value": 9.129487, "relative_strength": -34.021778, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.193123, "energy": 67.657445, "activity_lines": [ 5.666, 5.791455, 6.329667, 6.858366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.65, "volume": 135752800, "typical_volume": 41789896.25, "trend": 7.499, "fair_value": 9.094167, "relative_strength": -19.217325, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.275899, "energy": 46.561065, "activity_lines": [ 5.998667, 5.918727, 6.312, 6.798194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.47, "volume": 98080748, "typical_volume": 44690582.35, "trend": 7.416333, "fair_value": 9.047756, "relative_strength": -24.654543, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.958548, "energy": 29.942504, "activity_lines": [ 6.198, 6.008727, 6.285333, 6.731806 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }