{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b02c7765-1b1f-4186-ad26-fdcee9083959", "symbol": "CGD", "name": "Country Group Development Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.885, "architecture_energy": 22.9, "architecture_maturity": 34.585, "architecture_confidence": 90.435, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.28, "rotation_up": 25.29, "upward_expansion": 8.91, "deceleration": 33.89, "rotation_down": 41.64, "downward_expansion": 70.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.101333, 0.101455, 0.104571, 0.106602 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.1, "trend_reference": 0.109, "distance_from_trend": -0.082569, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.235641, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.575626, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.04675, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.166667, "excess_performance": -0.358992, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.082569, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029674, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.575626, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003663, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.230468, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011098, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.166667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.585097, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 51366500, "relative_activity": 7.316696, "balance": 1.585097, "dry_up": 3.19326, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.138462, "annualized_volatility": 0.357291, "from_high_reference": -0.230769, "from_low_reference": 0.428571 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.109, "fair_value_reference": 0.235641, "structural_low": 0.07, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.019231, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.512821, "median_excess_return": -0.016175, "regime_survival": 0.871795, "best_return": 0.122449, "worst_return": -0.24, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.050288, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.113636, "worst_return": -0.368421, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.055556, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.103027, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.029412, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -26.153765, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.015589, "energy": 49.98942, "activity_lines": [ 0.1, 0.102727, 0.106905, 0.108473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.11, "volume": 17785100, "typical_volume": 4438385.0, "trend": 0.11, "fair_value": 0.240577, "relative_strength": -18.876936, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.749008, "energy": 25.665746, "activity_lines": [ 0.103333, 0.103636, 0.107, 0.108473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.1, "volume": 10747300, "typical_volume": 4826900.0, "trend": 0.109667, "fair_value": 0.23891, "relative_strength": -25.809761, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.339371, "energy": 27.692358, "activity_lines": [ 0.102667, 0.102727, 0.106143, 0.107828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.1, "volume": 9773600, "typical_volume": 4624695.0, "trend": 0.109333, "fair_value": 0.237308, "relative_strength": -24.168742, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.839061, "energy": 24.260971, "activity_lines": [ 0.102, 0.102, 0.105333, 0.107204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.1, "volume": 51366500, "typical_volume": 7020450.0, "trend": 0.109, "fair_value": 0.235641, "relative_strength": -23.04675, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.885457, "energy": 22.900464, "activity_lines": [ 0.101333, 0.101455, 0.104571, 0.106602 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }