{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b032cd89-dd1d-48b1-8d82-5bc1b58f9760", "symbol": "603608", "name": "Topscore Fashion Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 26.228, "architecture_energy": 28.364, "architecture_maturity": 76.161, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.44, "rotation_up": 23.7, "upward_expansion": 57.99, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 42.85, "downward_expansion": 23.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.879333, 20.970182, 19.811, 17.829097 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 19.01, "trend_reference": 15.336667, "distance_from_trend": 0.239513, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.84141, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.778667, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 58.752679, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.747243, "excess_performance": 0.790446, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.239513, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.446355, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.778667, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.287009, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.587527, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046765, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.747243, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.230864, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 104259188, "relative_activity": 1.057812, "balance": 2.230864, "dry_up": 1.147255, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.208433, "annualized_volatility": 0.816951, "from_high_reference": -0.351195, "from_low_reference": 2.076052 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.336667, "fair_value_reference": 6.84141, "structural_low": 9.21, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.122616, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.083728, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.417653, "worst_return": -0.055921, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.242457, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.108205, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.796555, "worst_return": -0.481557, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.115487, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.044228, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.592847, "worst_return": -0.440574, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030812, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.108992, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.783981, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.210454, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057105, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.163408, "active": false }, { "regime": 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60.225446, "activity_lines": [ 24.112, 23.378727, 19.625238, 17.288753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.68, "volume": 145898958, "typical_volume": 97068227.8, "trend": 14.758333, "fair_value": 6.672756, "relative_strength": 49.366883, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.470775, "energy": 37.029296, "activity_lines": [ 21.607333, 22.447636, 19.626, 17.430688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.969999, "volume": 109124166, "typical_volume": 97145223.65, "trend": 15.046333, "fair_value": 6.751346, "relative_strength": 48.585072, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.668201, "energy": 23.499565, "activity_lines": [ 19.727333, 21.523272, 19.634476, 17.573376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.01, "volume": 104259188, "typical_volume": 98561188.25, "trend": 15.336667, "fair_value": 6.84141, "relative_strength": 58.752679, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.227818, "energy": 28.364293, "activity_lines": [ 18.879333, 20.970182, 19.811, 17.829097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }