{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b0356e27-bead-496c-a9f6-92d4b0a782c6", "symbol": "GLAD", "name": "Gladstone Capital Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 69.468, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.374, "architecture_energy": 31.768, "architecture_maturity": 17.923, "architecture_confidence": 66.317, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.5, "rotation_up": 46.67, "upward_expansion": 76.37, "deceleration": 58.56, "rotation_down": 25.57, "downward_expansion": 5.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.253215, 19.206167, 19.058394, 18.758291 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.73, "trend_reference": 18.577857, "distance_from_trend": 0.062017, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.890292, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.008059, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.146119, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.08021, "excess_performance": -0.107244, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.062017, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005595, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.008059, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01282, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.111461, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.109096, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.08021, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.138334, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1101112, "relative_activity": 1.221513, "balance": 1.138334, "dry_up": 1.024511, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045011, "annualized_volatility": 0.264931, "from_high_reference": -0.217696, "from_low_reference": 0.221849 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.577857, "fair_value_reference": 19.890292, "structural_low": 16.147656, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.004928, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.48, "median_excess_return": -0.012368, "regime_survival": 0.68, "best_return": 0.162147, "worst_return": -0.117921, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.01143, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.003903, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.182301, "worst_return": -0.114467, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.011996, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.04277, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.338404, "worst_return": -0.25775, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030898, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.048148, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016239, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.080931, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.096278, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.106896, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.104112, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017373, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.073784, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.050027, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 15.511944, "volume": 1020134, "typical_volume": 783401.2, "trend": 14.681872, "fair_value": 13.852832, "relative_strength": -6.411066, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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"activity_lines": [ 19.197661, 19.108951, 18.7672, 18.599983 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.752318, "volume": 819556, "typical_volume": 940654.2, "trend": 18.645639, "fair_value": 19.842838, "relative_strength": -10.504808, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.917481, "energy": 56.010317, "activity_lines": [ 19.420428, 19.22686, 18.901783, 18.671852 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.79, "volume": 986042, "typical_volume": 942070.25, "trend": 18.619866, "fair_value": 19.856449, "relative_strength": -12.472796, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.48065, "energy": 45.647244, "activity_lines": [ 19.288024, 19.168049, 18.934557, 18.681165 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.67, "volume": 787402, "typical_volume": 929170.85, "trend": 18.584691, "fair_value": 19.868805, "relative_strength": -12.53672, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.425756, "energy": 23.236116, "activity_lines": [ 19.089291, 19.089564, 18.950093, 18.6844 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.73, "volume": 1101112, "typical_volume": 901433.1, "trend": 18.577857, "fair_value": 19.890292, "relative_strength": -11.146119, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.37376, "energy": 31.767674, "activity_lines": [ 19.253215, 19.206167, 19.058394, 18.758291 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }