{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b03dc77b-9958-40d4-bced-bc9fe596cdfc", "symbol": "CRANE", "name": "Chukai Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 86.56, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.298, "architecture_energy": 59.774, "architecture_maturity": 17.279, "architecture_confidence": 90.683, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.99, "rotation_up": 12.99, "upward_expansion": 11.99, "deceleration": 38.52, "rotation_down": 67.28, "downward_expansion": 87.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.362667, 0.374364, 0.383571, 0.392753 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.34, "trend_reference": 0.407667, "distance_from_trend": -0.165985, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.626859, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.457613, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.613391, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.306122, "excess_performance": -0.498447, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.165985, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007414, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.457613, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033259, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.276134, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125136, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.306122, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.534676, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4120600, "relative_activity": 1.932834, "balance": 0.534676, "dry_up": 1.909756, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115385, "annualized_volatility": 0.432363, "from_high_reference": -0.413793, "from_low_reference": 0.172414 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.407667, "fair_value_reference": 0.626859, "structural_low": 0.34, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.008553, "positive_rate": 0.394737, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.014007, "regime_survival": 0.815789, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.34, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.101124, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.012306, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.361111, "worst_return": -0.304348, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.151299, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.106458, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.170732, "worst_return": -0.283582, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.197288, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.258664, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.472527, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.11236, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.146341, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.289855, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.208333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026316, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052632, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.388889, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.170213, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052632, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": 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17.259488, "activity_lines": [ 0.391333, 0.391273, 0.395571, 0.404688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.37, "volume": 6792300, "typical_volume": 1732900.0, "trend": 0.412, "fair_value": 0.641538, "relative_strength": -23.542569, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.773277, "energy": 39.969707, "activity_lines": [ 0.383333, 0.387455, 0.392619, 0.401914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.38, "volume": 4169200, "typical_volume": 1914250.0, "trend": 0.410667, "fair_value": 0.636731, "relative_strength": -21.283377, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.453939, "energy": 39.370948, "activity_lines": [ 0.379333, 0.386, 0.391, 0.399849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.37, "volume": 1203500, "typical_volume": 1957095.0, "trend": 0.409333, "fair_value": 0.631859, "relative_strength": -22.143693, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.832764, "energy": 45.421815, "activity_lines": [ 0.375333, 0.382909, 0.388571, 0.397226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.34, "volume": 4120600, "typical_volume": 2131895.0, "trend": 0.407667, "fair_value": 0.626859, "relative_strength": -27.613391, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.297905, "energy": 59.773784, "activity_lines": [ 0.362667, 0.374364, 0.383571, 0.392753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }