{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b03f454c-31d5-49fd-b3e7-244fd5c43477", "symbol": "A04", "name": "ASL Marine Holdings Ltd.", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 62.925, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 1.204, "architecture_energy": 9.843, "architecture_maturity": 14.801, "architecture_confidence": 79.06, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.29, "rotation_up": 43.89, "upward_expansion": 31.85, "deceleration": 43.77, "rotation_down": 19.69, "downward_expansion": 20.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.324667, 0.318273, 0.326238, 0.327396 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.325, "trend_reference": 0.325425, "distance_from_trend": -0.001305, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.131283, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.475571, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.910948, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.087553, "excess_performance": -0.067282, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001305, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058199, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.475571, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.092235, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.009109, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.74882, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.087553, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.321693, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1903200, "relative_activity": 0.29731, "balance": 0.321693, "dry_up": 0.546072, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091124, "annualized_volatility": 0.493265, "from_high_reference": -0.207317, "from_low_reference": 4.056949 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.325425, "fair_value_reference": 0.131283, "structural_low": 0.28, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.023778, "positive_rate": 0.35, "directional_follow_through": 0.35, "median_excess_return": -0.009905, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.413043, "worst_return": -0.175432, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.057931, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.025964, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.576265, "worst_return": -0.409829, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.021967, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.04733, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 3.439643, "worst_return": -0.259252, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.18124, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.126854, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 3.885491, "worst_return": -0.344254, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.067797, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016133, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016133, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.016954, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.053586, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.050843, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029843, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 3.536395, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.24, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031746, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014925, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015625, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.050426, "volume": 10461700, "typical_volume": 14700640.0, "trend": 0.051184, "fair_value": 0.050616, "relative_strength": 7.709131, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", 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"stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.293479, "energy": 21.082212, "activity_lines": [ 0.305667, 0.312182, 0.327381, 0.325634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.335, "volume": 7710400, "typical_volume": 9287410.0, "trend": 0.319986, "fair_value": 0.126066, "relative_strength": 12.349235, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.773872, "energy": 9.781867, "activity_lines": [ 0.316, 0.313727, 0.327905, 0.326798 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.33, "volume": 2960900, "typical_volume": 8148850.0, "trend": 0.322353, "fair_value": 0.127814, "relative_strength": 7.466103, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.932949, "energy": 8.981154, "activity_lines": [ 0.321667, 0.315364, 0.327881, 0.327444 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.32, "volume": 1408000, "typical_volume": 7078005.0, "trend": 0.323391, "fair_value": 0.129529, "relative_strength": 2.014078, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.370409, "energy": 8.044422, "activity_lines": [ 0.323333, 0.316091, 0.326833, 0.327292 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.325, "volume": 1903200, "typical_volume": 6401400.0, "trend": 0.325425, "fair_value": 0.131283, "relative_strength": 0.910948, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.204461, "energy": 9.842829, "activity_lines": [ 0.324667, 0.318273, 0.326238, 0.327396 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }