{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b042ae6a-37df-409c-8fb5-54e1e1eb90ca", "symbol": "6432", "name": "Arlitech Electronic Corp.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 40.714, "architecture_energy": 29.13, "architecture_maturity": 63.427, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.57, "rotation_up": 31.47, "upward_expansion": 60.89, "deceleration": 90.46, "rotation_down": 26.13, "downward_expansion": 15.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 72.040002, 73.134546, 68.549286, 61.167312 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 71.800003, "trend_reference": 51.926667, "distance_from_trend": 0.382719, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.702548, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.069012, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 26.801387, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.346405, "excess_performance": 0.905033, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.382719, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.339985, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.069012, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.436753, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.268014, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.16637, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.346405, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.380245, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9089227, "relative_activity": 0.664468, "balance": 2.380245, "dry_up": 0.744159, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.179773, "annualized_volatility": 0.706988, "from_high_reference": -0.173763, "from_low_reference": 1.860558 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.926667, "fair_value_reference": 34.702548, "structural_low": 30.700001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.004399, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.037796, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.099248, "worst_return": -0.047809, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.048328, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.161014, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.034587, "worst_return": -0.062069, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.665403, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.225631, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.36391, "worst_return": -0.033103, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"gate": "up", "direction": 59.858242, "energy": 49.390743, "activity_lines": [ 73.706665, 72.919999, 62.325952, 55.032365 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 70.0, "volume": 5272808, "typical_volume": 12254314.4, "trend": 47.991667, "fair_value": 33.874372, "relative_strength": 33.034939, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.442432, "energy": 38.157784, "activity_lines": [ 71.559999, 72.974545, 63.911904, 56.529032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 77.300003, "volume": 14387843, "typical_volume": 12915432.45, "trend": 49.46, "fair_value": 34.172136, "relative_strength": 47.134575, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.079256, "energy": 36.396907, "activity_lines": [ 72.973334, 74.012727, 66.029524, 58.419892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 70.900002, "volume": 11967349, "typical_volume": 13263549.3, "trend": 50.655, "fair_value": 34.432694, "relative_strength": 30.637937, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.053637, "energy": 28.593345, "activity_lines": [ 72.100001, 73.494546, 67.328571, 59.803118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 71.800003, "volume": 9089227, "typical_volume": 13678946.95, "trend": 51.926667, "fair_value": 34.702548, "relative_strength": 26.801387, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.714059, "energy": 29.130275, "activity_lines": [ 72.040002, 73.134546, 68.549286, 61.167312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }