{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b04c188c-e4ad-43a0-8c05-7419900e13b2", "symbol": "DLX", "name": "Delignit AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 88.289, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -41.215, "architecture_energy": 48.238, "architecture_maturity": 15.386, "architecture_confidence": 66.227, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.3, "rotation_up": 18.55, "upward_expansion": 17.64, "deceleration": 44.3, "rotation_down": 64.06, "downward_expansion": 59.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.396, 2.445398, 2.492359, 2.494972 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2.32, "trend_reference": 2.487478, "distance_from_trend": -0.067328, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.784175, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.166719, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.642173, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.12619, "excess_performance": -0.19083, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.067328, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053808, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.166719, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051641, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.086422, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.216797, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.12619, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.526634, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13306, "relative_activity": 0.999425, "balance": 0.526634, "dry_up": 1.922876, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064807, "annualized_volatility": 0.24963, "from_high_reference": -0.1744, "from_low_reference": 0.240539 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.487478, "fair_value_reference": 2.784175, "structural_low": 2.189922, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.030283, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.025528, "regime_survival": 0.730769, "best_return": 0.248485, "worst_return": -0.18408, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.116429, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.094706, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.115152, "worst_return": -0.251282, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.160021, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.086118, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.212121, "worst_return": -0.27, "sufficient": true 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"fair_value": 2.831722, "relative_strength": -1.2377, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.276684, "energy": 7.82249, "activity_lines": [ 2.502667, 2.529959, 2.529065, 2.512122 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.44, "volume": 19322, "typical_volume": 11220.95, "trend": 2.472284, "fair_value": 2.821284, "relative_strength": 1.424754, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.153924, "energy": 10.922087, "activity_lines": [ 2.474667, 2.510173, 2.522317, 2.510411 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.46, "volume": 12169, "typical_volume": 11671.0, "trend": 2.479995, "fair_value": 2.809558, "relative_strength": 1.204708, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.042115, "energy": 18.822428, "activity_lines": [ 2.457333, 2.497934, 2.51813, 2.509618 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.42, "volume": 57605, "typical_volume": 13598.05, "trend": 2.487018, "fair_value": 2.798048, "relative_strength": -2.342436, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.203656, "energy": 32.342547, "activity_lines": [ 2.436, 2.479853, 2.510046, 2.505747 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.32, "volume": 13306, "typical_volume": 13313.65, "trend": 2.487478, "fair_value": 2.784175, "relative_strength": -8.642173, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.215185, "energy": 48.238224, "activity_lines": [ 2.396, 2.445398, 2.492359, 2.494972 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }