{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b04dda71-1b0f-4784-999f-a449ab097761", "symbol": "DIAS", "name": "DiaSorin S.p.A.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.663, "architecture_energy": 69.312, "architecture_maturity": 28.208, "architecture_confidence": 71.342, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.51, "rotation_up": 70.23, "upward_expansion": 89.88, "deceleration": 43.27, "rotation_down": 14.26, "downward_expansion": 14.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 71.713334, 70.332001, 68.112593, 67.004556 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 75.5, "trend_reference": 66.956637, "distance_from_trend": 0.127595, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 84.425454, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.10572, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.167803, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.035112, "excess_performance": -0.139135, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.127595, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035861, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.10572, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.168494, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.111678, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.179442, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.035112, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.978766, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1752, "relative_activity": 1.006203, "balance": 1.978766, "dry_up": 1.191276, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053803, "annualized_volatility": 0.386701, "from_high_reference": -0.154435, "from_low_reference": 0.418317 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 66.956637, "fair_value_reference": 84.425454, "structural_low": 53.232111, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.033681, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.00564, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.088524, "worst_return": -0.02025, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.050442, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.018881, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.050442, "worst_return": -0.050442, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.084315, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.198098, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.084315, "worst_return": -0.084315, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.2567, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.318263, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.2567, "worst_return": -0.2567, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-02-03", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.197004, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047598, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.07673, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.133752, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.063526, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.010837, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003949, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.009143, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033049, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 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"volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1413.7, "trend": 66.673373, "fair_value": 84.687493, "relative_strength": -20.66981, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.004576, "energy": 23.445075, "activity_lines": [ 68.550668, 68.313456, 66.370524, 66.081835 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 72.32, "volume": 5969, "typical_volume": 1667.55, "trend": 66.844444, "fair_value": 84.523647, "relative_strength": -13.118725, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 43.286245, "energy": 32.376136, "activity_lines": [ 69.736001, 69.101092, 67.113566, 66.446133 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 75.5, "volume": 1752, "typical_volume": 1741.2, "trend": 66.956637, "fair_value": 84.425454, "relative_strength": -11.167803, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.663078, "energy": 69.312385, "activity_lines": [ 71.713334, 70.332001, 68.112593, 67.004556 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }