{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b04dea95-0a16-435d-87ff-4abf7281c5e6", "symbol": "CSCI", "name": "COSCIENS Biopharma Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -15.76, "architecture_energy": 20.708, "architecture_maturity": 23.445, "architecture_confidence": 72.917, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.11, "rotation_up": 17.63, "upward_expansion": 16.65, "deceleration": 67.5, "rotation_down": 55.88, "downward_expansion": 39.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.39, 8.053636, 8.109714, 7.825548 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.05, "trend_reference": 7.695, "distance_from_trend": -0.083821, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.199038, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.612617, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -29.450098, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.142336, "excess_performance": -0.262757, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.083821, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033049, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.612617, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022492, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.294501, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06265, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.142336, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.620313, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2300, "relative_activity": 0.376438, "balance": 0.620313, "dry_up": 0.814252, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.239935, "annualized_volatility": 1.421336, "from_high_reference": -0.523649, "from_low_reference": 1.136364 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.695, "fair_value_reference": 18.199038, "structural_low": 3.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.053521, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.046555, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.263291, "worst_return": -0.450813, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.333333, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.397837, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": -0.04499, "worst_return": -0.433766, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.368831, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.451952, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.259714, "worst_return": -0.50692, "sufficient": false }, { 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02045, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071721, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.26087, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.256121, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.233333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005495, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.290411, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.475806, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.049383, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007042, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 44.160001, "volume": 176, "typical_volume": 396.6, "trend": 47.864, "fair_value": 160.700769, "relative_strength": -18.159175, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.012638, 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"activity_lines": [ 8.646, 8.300182, 7.762571, 7.704 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 10.98, "volume": 2967, "typical_volume": 6089.8, "trend": 7.9, "fair_value": 19.465, "relative_strength": 0.864551, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.736357, "energy": 72.090525, "activity_lines": [ 9.49, 8.818364, 8.105857, 7.907613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.1, "volume": 5900, "typical_volume": 6188.15, "trend": 7.88, "fair_value": 19.226923, "relative_strength": -24.293986, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.780645, "energy": 55.839022, "activity_lines": [ 9.18, 8.760545, 8.161714, 7.920516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.0, "volume": 6300, "typical_volume": 6369.85, "trend": 7.860667, "fair_value": 18.957436, "relative_strength": -23.140289, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.572663, "energy": 35.83275, "activity_lines": [ 8.808667, 8.684545, 8.207762, 7.928258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.7, "volume": 6500, "typical_volume": 6483.2, "trend": 7.817333, "fair_value": 18.709103, "relative_strength": -24.462526, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.22619, "energy": 18.040749, "activity_lines": [ 8.376, 8.549818, 8.222, 7.917892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.1, "volume": 4800, "typical_volume": 6568.2, "trend": 7.764, "fair_value": 18.458462, "relative_strength": -28.310724, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.168541, "energy": 16.569537, "activity_lines": [ 7.832, 8.301273, 8.171143, 7.871613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.05, "volume": 2300, "typical_volume": 6109.9, "trend": 7.695, "fair_value": 18.199038, "relative_strength": -29.450098, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.760096, "energy": 20.708419, "activity_lines": [ 7.39, 8.053636, 8.109714, 7.825548 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }