{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b055ebfe-6346-45f3-a420-c5fa7d2dadf5", "symbol": "VIRINCHI", "name": "Virinchi Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.031, "architecture_energy": 43.424, "architecture_maturity": 72.218, "architecture_confidence": 93.28, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.11, "rotation_up": 18.92, "upward_expansion": 5.86, "deceleration": 47.11, "rotation_down": 58.68, "downward_expansion": 81.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.584, 15.796727, 16.218, 16.687248 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 15.76, "trend_reference": 17.564333, "distance_from_trend": -0.102727, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 27.912244, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.435373, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.301973, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.236434, "excess_performance": -0.192725, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.102727, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134364, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.435373, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028491, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.25302, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034532, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.236434, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.687401, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 299977, "relative_activity": 0.856857, "balance": 0.687401, "dry_up": 0.667601, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082439, "annualized_volatility": 0.477141, "from_high_reference": -0.517895, "from_low_reference": 0.141202 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.564333, "fair_value_reference": 27.912244, "structural_low": 13.81, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.033697, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.006423, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.383776, "worst_return": -0.26687, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.029028, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.041934, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.211872, "worst_return": -0.340586, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.323013, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.244858, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.362823, "worst_return": -0.32978, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"gate": "down", "direction": -61.40775, "energy": 45.009846, "activity_lines": [ 15.768, 15.965091, 16.417477, 16.992473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.39, "volume": 196790, "typical_volume": 440221.6, "trend": 17.798667, "fair_value": 28.045833, "relative_strength": -27.170469, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.20937, "energy": 49.525157, "activity_lines": [ 15.565333, 15.84, 16.293572, 16.818774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.76, "volume": 299977, "typical_volume": 350089.95, "trend": 17.564333, "fair_value": 27.912244, "relative_strength": -25.301973, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.030726, "energy": 43.424093, "activity_lines": [ 15.584, 15.796727, 16.218, 16.687248 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }