{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b05e0b83-f811-4d9d-b12b-1d9c8ea12146", "symbol": "ESGO", "name": "Gold Miners Screened UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 85.746, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.552, "architecture_energy": 30.469, "architecture_maturity": 42.199, "architecture_confidence": 62.816, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.82, "rotation_up": 26.16, "upward_expansion": 13.67, "deceleration": 63.06, "rotation_down": 40.5, "downward_expansion": 70.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.0244, 14.951709, 15.537314, 16.115028 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 16.804001, "trend_reference": 16.903267, "distance_from_trend": -0.005873, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.216827, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.644738, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.573641, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.055743, "excess_performance": -0.226635, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.005873, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004765, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.644738, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.174759, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.085736, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.142832, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.055743, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.473026, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20485, "relative_activity": 4.308867, "balance": 3.473026, "dry_up": 1.965493, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070716, "annualized_volatility": 0.541807, "from_high_reference": -0.256131, "from_low_reference": 0.533772 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.903267, "fair_value_reference": 10.216827, "structural_low": 13.308, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.033147, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.005097, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.160942, "worst_return": -0.057066, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.039325, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.023207, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.34429, "worst_return": -0.098443, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.109267, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.01714, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.281523, "worst_return": -0.062989, "sufficient": false }, 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"activity_lines": [ 15.034267, 15.432545, 16.169981, 16.69886 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.576, "volume": 3400, "typical_volume": 4956.65, "trend": 17.022267, "fair_value": 10.046103, "relative_strength": -23.20082, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.324617, "energy": 80.868375, "activity_lines": [ 14.506533, 15.014618, 15.85881, 16.471105 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.518, "volume": 10758, "typical_volume": 4525.3, "trend": 16.9592, "fair_value": 10.097167, "relative_strength": -17.851426, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.115477, "energy": 69.141494, "activity_lines": [ 14.394267, 14.834509, 15.673229, 16.30954 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.054, "volume": 2734, "typical_volume": 4187.5, "trend": 16.913733, "fair_value": 10.148083, "relative_strength": -21.086681, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.884506, "energy": 72.287282, "activity_lines": [ 14.2192, 14.625418, 15.465124, 16.122108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.804001, "volume": 20485, "typical_volume": 4754.15, "trend": 16.903267, "fair_value": 10.216827, "relative_strength": -8.573641, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.551728, "energy": 30.468896, "activity_lines": [ 15.0244, 14.951709, 15.537314, 16.115028 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }