{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b064704f-5f90-45a0-a0e6-917cc760ad45", "symbol": "GREENPOWER", "name": "Orient Green Power Company Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -30.032, "architecture_energy": 52.817, "architecture_maturity": 10.553, "architecture_confidence": 79.216, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.12, "rotation_up": 15.34, "upward_expansion": 26.1, "deceleration": 49.59, "rotation_down": 70.53, "downward_expansion": 58.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.936667, 10.196727, 10.601333, 10.519441 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 9.82, "trend_reference": 10.412667, "distance_from_trend": -0.056918, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.781531, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.377754, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.064231, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.035363, "excess_performance": 0.008346, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.056918, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057336, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.377754, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.145957, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.140642, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.156693, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.035363, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.425147, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8498469, "relative_activity": 0.294035, "balance": 0.425147, "dry_up": 0.356579, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071283, "annualized_volatility": 0.417725, "from_high_reference": -0.347074, "from_low_reference": 0.230576 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.412667, "fair_value_reference": 15.781531, "structural_low": 7.98, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.022099, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.062725, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.022599, "worst_return": -0.167442, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.035712, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.092466, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.016949, "worst_return": -0.088372, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.261342, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.157051, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.718032, "worst_return": -0.195349, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.144186, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.245199, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.144186, "worst_return": -0.144186, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-07-21", "end": "2023-10-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.308077, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2023-11-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.105839, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.311239, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.029954, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.086514, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.127043, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.257686, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014443, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.126566, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.027335, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.040664, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.078512, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.10602, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020937, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 14.15, "volume": 40274568, "typical_volume": 56533518.25, "trend": 9.306503, "fair_value": 6.912408, "relative_strength": 47.382185, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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"regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.067156, "energy": 18.230879, "activity_lines": [ 10.554, 10.846364, 10.848571, 10.677333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.95, "volume": 9403414, "typical_volume": 30863712.0, "trend": 10.572667, "fair_value": 15.842833, "relative_strength": -13.646047, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.342853, "energy": 30.78251, "activity_lines": [ 10.294, 10.64, 10.790571, 10.63271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.03, "volume": 16726456, "typical_volume": 30989910.7, "trend": 10.524, "fair_value": 15.830692, "relative_strength": -10.356935, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.040305, "energy": 37.636797, "activity_lines": [ 10.140667, 10.487273, 10.73981, 10.597699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.95, "volume": 6596350, "typical_volume": 29567800.2, "trend": 10.459, "fair_value": 15.802987, "relative_strength": -12.778659, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.007222, "energy": 51.533745, "activity_lines": [ 10.034, 10.344545, 10.676857, 10.560667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.82, "volume": 8498469, "typical_volume": 28902943.6, "trend": 10.412667, "fair_value": 15.781531, "relative_strength": -14.064231, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.032004, "energy": 52.817262, "activity_lines": [ 9.936667, 10.196727, 10.601333, 10.519441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }