{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b0671cdd-07df-4be9-aff5-6407b767e80d", "symbol": "SPMD", "name": "iShares Edge S&P 500 Minimum Volatility UCITS ETF USD (Dist)", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 63.453, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.875, "architecture_energy": 72.976, "architecture_maturity": 32.875, "architecture_confidence": 73.471, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.22, "rotation_up": 66.07, "upward_expansion": 86.12, "deceleration": 54.4, "rotation_down": 21.94, "downward_expansion": 12.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.1648, 10.102909, 9.991392, 9.871272 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.382, "trend_reference": 9.751518, "distance_from_trend": 0.064655, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.636454, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.202114, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.453364, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.073052, "excess_performance": 0.021817, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.064655, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018987, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.202114, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040955, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.004534, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018515, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.073052, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.455053, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13713, "relative_activity": 0.205189, "balance": 0.455053, "dry_up": 3.19477, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01364, "annualized_volatility": 0.090806, "from_high_reference": -0.003456, "from_low_reference": 0.148158 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.751518, "fair_value_reference": 8.636454, "structural_low": 9.042312, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.00874, "positive_rate": 0.641026, "directional_follow_through": 0.641026, "median_excess_return": -0.00293, "regime_survival": 0.717949, "best_return": 0.063528, "worst_return": -0.09202, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.010107, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 1.5e-05, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.094527, "worst_return": -0.068052, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.055867, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.012471, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.093464, "worst_return": -0.087799, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"relative_strength": -2.533383, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.505264, "energy": 77.805068, "activity_lines": [ 10.061833, 10.030527, 9.905294, 9.807187 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.052, "volume": 8379, "typical_volume": 66270.9, "trend": 9.728802, "fair_value": 8.614351, "relative_strength": -3.424568, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.14685, "energy": 64.473292, "activity_lines": [ 10.062533, 10.037445, 9.934113, 9.82913 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.382, "volume": 13713, "typical_volume": 66831.1, "trend": 9.751518, "fair_value": 8.636454, "relative_strength": -0.453364, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.875134, "energy": 72.976176, "activity_lines": [ 10.1648, 10.102909, 9.991392, 9.871272 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }