{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b06a91c8-5b25-4494-9fff-bc4329e85bd8", "symbol": "XLE", "name": "State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 69.667, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.335, "architecture_energy": 33.545, "architecture_maturity": 10.95, "architecture_confidence": 40.809, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.14, "rotation_up": 63.33, "upward_expansion": 67.48, "deceleration": 60.64, "rotation_down": 12.04, "downward_expansion": 13.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 1008.539331, 990.68937, 989.091709, 990.663224 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 984.0, "trend_reference": 977.200855, "distance_from_trend": 0.006958, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1471.008066, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.331071, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.995102, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.078525, "excess_performance": 0.133192, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006958, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052529, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.331071, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035556, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.179951, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.178145, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.078525, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.167553, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15997, "relative_activity": 0.238699, "balance": 0.167553, "dry_up": 0.967332, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043407, "annualized_volatility": 0.305394, "from_high_reference": -0.417508, "from_low_reference": 0.261225 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 977.200855, "fair_value_reference": 1471.008066, "structural_low": 911.115304, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.000285, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.018666, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.157446, "worst_return": -0.175138, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.0348, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.074155, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.212458, "worst_return": -0.095291, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.037138, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.009987, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.19272, "worst_return": -0.201823, 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977.200855, "fair_value": 1471.008066, "relative_strength": -17.995102, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.334597, "energy": 33.545485, "activity_lines": [ 1008.539331, 990.68937, 989.091709, 990.663224 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }