{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b07183dd-0e0a-4947-ada6-88b3ad94b345", "symbol": "3171", "name": "Samsung Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited - Samsung Blockchain Technologies ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 92.48, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 1.345, "architecture_energy": 16.655, "architecture_maturity": 54.983, "architecture_confidence": 88.915, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.52, "rotation_up": 14.72, "upward_expansion": 45.8, "deceleration": 87.01, "rotation_down": 42.82, "downward_expansion": 30.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.993335, 45.740001, 46.220953, 45.139312 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 44.540001, "trend_reference": 44.14, "distance_from_trend": 0.009062, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.410321, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.333121, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.431632, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.178307, "excess_performance": 0.211888, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009062, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0122, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.333121, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.2035, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.014316, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069326, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.178307, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.639775, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.639775, "dry_up": 1.529001, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053642, "annualized_volatility": 0.340772, "from_high_reference": -0.189592, "from_low_reference": 0.230387 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.14, "fair_value_reference": 33.410321, "structural_low": 36.200001, "invalidation": "A decisive 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41.362182, 41.390095, 42.279097 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "close": 47.540001, "volume": 2250, "typical_volume": 12227.5, "trend": 43.757333, "fair_value": 30.938013, "relative_strength": 5.501005, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 43.07472, "energy": 46.1801, "activity_lines": [ 44.886667, 42.600364, 41.912095, 42.50757 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "close": 48.080002, "volume": 3600, "typical_volume": 12407.5, "trend": 43.684, "fair_value": 31.146795, "relative_strength": 8.014435, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 45.19521, "energy": 69.835279, "activity_lines": [ 46.280001, 43.822182, 42.464381, 42.786452 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 48.119999, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 12185.0, "trend": 43.629333, "fair_value": 31.3575, "relative_strength": 9.18717, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", 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8.863346, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.204449, "energy": 63.924122, "activity_lines": [ 48.296, 47.428, 44.640762, 44.048774 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 49.82, "volume": 750, "typical_volume": 10667.5, "trend": 43.994, "fair_value": 32.2075, "relative_strength": 18.932447, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.226823, "energy": 62.668034, "activity_lines": [ 48.758667, 48.092364, 45.290191, 44.445419 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 46.700001, "volume": 7600, "typical_volume": 7160.0, "trend": 44.034667, "fair_value": 32.396667, "relative_strength": 17.2159, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.487763, "energy": 41.964457, "activity_lines": [ 48.065334, 48.009819, 45.62181, 44.62 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 46.360001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 6877.5, "trend": 44.027333, "fair_value": 32.580064, "relative_strength": 12.797943, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.301865, "energy": 30.304962, "activity_lines": [ 47.353334, 47.810546, 45.878667, 44.770022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 46.900002, "volume": 5400, "typical_volume": 7147.5, "trend": 44.022, "fair_value": 32.748782, "relative_strength": 10.122957, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.880724, "energy": 28.460813, "activity_lines": [ 47.105335, 47.685819, 46.154477, 44.955355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 43.580002, "volume": 3700, "typical_volume": 6915.0, "trend": 44.038, "fair_value": 32.901987, "relative_strength": 0.810129, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.331815, "energy": 21.379027, "activity_lines": [ 45.853335, 46.891637, 46.082191, 44.926839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.18, "volume": 3650, "typical_volume": 6110.0, "trend": 44.110667, "fair_value": 33.07391, "relative_strength": 5.036834, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.85012, "energy": 22.951124, "activity_lines": [ 45.689334, 46.642183, 46.246382, 45.065033 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.900002, "volume": 34300, "typical_volume": 6937.5, "trend": 44.178, "fair_value": 33.239744, "relative_strength": -1.475361, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.025662, "energy": 15.385586, "activity_lines": [ 45.341335, 46.194547, 46.265048, 45.115958 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.540001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 6810.0, "trend": 44.14, "fair_value": 33.410321, "relative_strength": -1.431632, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.34486, "energy": 16.655061, "activity_lines": [ 44.993335, 45.740001, 46.220953, 45.139312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }