{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b071e377-1c7b-4cdf-a83b-da76aabd9e92", "symbol": "600501", "name": "Aerosun Corporation", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.536, "architecture_energy": 66.647, "architecture_maturity": 51.387, "architecture_confidence": 91.111, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.54, "rotation_up": 20.21, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 55.82, "rotation_down": 67.74, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.017333, 14.741818, 17.010143, 18.880215 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 14.79, "trend_reference": 21.797, "distance_from_trend": -0.321466, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.134399, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.184423, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.190243, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.449162, "excess_performance": -0.405958, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.321466, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112464, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.184423, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.570431, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.341902, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.315656, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.449162, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.239985, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33071889, "relative_activity": 1.005931, "balance": 0.239985, "dry_up": 1.166066, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.126905, "annualized_volatility": 0.461828, "from_high_reference": -0.629972, "from_low_reference": 0.2325 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.797, "fair_value_reference": 18.134399, "structural_low": 12.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.032355, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.003199, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.451695, "worst_return": -0.155987, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.216159, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.2021, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.421577, "worst_return": -0.155571, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.206828, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.26788, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.391311, "worst_return": -0.112666, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"down", "direction": -73.882022, "energy": 82.288978, "activity_lines": [ 16.154, 17.291091, 19.491333, 21.271398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.05, "volume": 49493362, "typical_volume": 34318013.5, "trend": 23.159333, "fair_value": 18.157629, "relative_strength": -40.705301, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.125357, "energy": 81.976214, "activity_lines": [ 15.021333, 16.257454, 18.717143, 20.592452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.04, "volume": 39517850, "typical_volume": 33157013.1, "trend": 22.722, "fair_value": 18.142545, "relative_strength": -41.050506, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.370547, "energy": 77.88274, "activity_lines": [ 14.196, 15.437818, 18.010333, 19.939591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.82, "volume": 31263424, "typical_volume": 32700435.55, "trend": 22.308333, "fair_value": 18.132461, "relative_strength": -37.359344, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.17218, "energy": 68.618036, "activity_lines": [ 13.890667, 14.939091, 17.439333, 19.365269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.79, "volume": 33071889, "typical_volume": 32876904.9, "trend": 21.797, "fair_value": 18.134399, "relative_strength": -34.190243, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.535541, "energy": 66.646608, "activity_lines": [ 14.017333, 14.741818, 17.010143, 18.880215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }