{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b07275f1-05d4-45d0-bea0-becb01834979", "symbol": "R-LQ45X", "name": "Premier ETF LQ-45", "exchange": "JKT", "country": "ID", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^JKSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 93.496, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.413, "architecture_energy": 19.263, "architecture_maturity": 85.909, "architecture_confidence": 60.128, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.69, "rotation_up": 29.86, "upward_expansion": 17.64, "deceleration": 46.59, "rotation_down": 26.1, "downward_expansion": 56.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 842.133333, 824.654545, 835.333333, 861.131183 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 860.0, "trend_reference": 904.866667, "distance_from_trend": -0.049584, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1003.467949, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.142972, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.365237, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.144279, "excess_performance": 0.047978, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.049584, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073357, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.142972, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024996, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.063652, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037756, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.144279, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.061806, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 64000, "relative_activity": 0.122344, "balance": 0.061806, "dry_up": 0.336637, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087478, "annualized_volatility": 0.374529, "from_high_reference": -0.218182, "from_low_reference": 0.154362 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 904.866667, "fair_value_reference": 1003.467949, "structural_low": 745.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.012282, "positive_rate": 0.619048, "directional_follow_through": 0.380952, "median_excess_return": 0.004, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.105521, "worst_return": -0.133333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.075524, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.029661, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.127401, "worst_return": -0.126932, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.026289, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.0079, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.121111, "worst_return": -0.048106, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.051907, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.041907, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.14, "worst_return": -0.105556, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017593, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.021798, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038997, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.077203, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.052941, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.009212, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.065327, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022965, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002045, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", 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"volume": 263900, "typical_volume": 540675.0, "trend": 917.966667, "fair_value": 1006.442308, "relative_strength": 6.341563, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.136104, "energy": 29.226837, "activity_lines": [ 816.133333, 811.163636, 836.957143, 869.303226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 843.0, "volume": 64700, "typical_volume": 534035.0, "trend": 911.7, "fair_value": 1004.858974, "relative_strength": 7.235027, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.572311, "energy": 21.175362, "activity_lines": [ 828.4, 816.527273, 835.157143, 864.466667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 860.0, "volume": 64000, "typical_volume": 523115.0, "trend": 904.866667, "fair_value": 1003.467949, "relative_strength": 6.365237, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.41261, "energy": 19.263153, "activity_lines": [ 842.133333, 824.654545, 835.333333, 861.131183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }