{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b076d0f5-9fb7-4d7c-bec0-8061adab90c9", "symbol": "MARP", "name": "Marzocchi Pompe S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.589, "architecture_energy": 16.506, "architecture_maturity": 28.61, "architecture_confidence": 70.093, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.87, "rotation_up": 30.21, "upward_expansion": 55.95, "deceleration": 85.32, "rotation_down": 26.69, "downward_expansion": 19.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.249333, 2.254909, 2.244975, 2.225294 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.22, "trend_reference": 2.205776, "distance_from_trend": 0.006449, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.961641, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.250416, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.960707, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.027273, "excess_performance": -0.143619, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006449, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015187, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.250416, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037869, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.159607, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027331, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.027273, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.411765, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8250, "relative_activity": 0.870712, "balance": 0.411765, "dry_up": 1.127968, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031878, "annualized_volatility": 0.169581, "from_high_reference": -0.208144, "from_low_reference": 0.117914 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.205776, "fair_value_reference": 2.961641, "structural_low": 1.985841, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.013636, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.022869, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.034043, "worst_return": -0.060914, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.142953, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.168024, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.008511, "worst_return": -0.294416, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.15277, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.235024, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.021276, "worst_return": -0.284264, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.194839, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.273112, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.064805, "worst_return": -0.324873, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041237, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.07258, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.036458, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060914, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.142132, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.13253, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035714, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007692, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015625, "active": false }, { 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"2026-07-17", "close": 2.26, "volume": 5250, "typical_volume": 10012.5, "trend": 2.186183, "fair_value": 2.987307, "relative_strength": -13.496643, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.883178, "energy": 25.535651, "activity_lines": [ 2.26, 2.260727, 2.23427, 2.214852 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.24, "volume": 23250, "typical_volume": 10287.5, "trend": 2.192708, "fair_value": 2.977917, "relative_strength": -13.425697, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.61698, "energy": 22.843292, "activity_lines": [ 2.253333, 2.258545, 2.237365, 2.218325 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.28, "volume": 6000, "typical_volume": 9625.0, "trend": 2.199268, "fair_value": 2.969615, "relative_strength": -11.83888, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.074775, "energy": 29.857839, "activity_lines": [ 2.262667, 2.262545, 2.244357, 2.223956 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.22, "volume": 8250, "typical_volume": 9475.0, "trend": 2.205776, "fair_value": 2.961641, "relative_strength": -15.960707, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.589094, "energy": 16.505966, "activity_lines": [ 2.249333, 2.254909, 2.244975, 2.225294 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }