{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b07de1b0-cf2d-4df3-a2d9-1fe6518faea7", "symbol": "MPK", "name": "MANY PEAKS FPO [MPK]", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 48.873, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.408, "architecture_energy": 49.891, "architecture_maturity": 17.068, "architecture_confidence": 87.334, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.63, "rotation_up": 22.92, "upward_expansion": 10.06, "deceleration": 42.73, "rotation_down": 48.16, "downward_expansion": 81.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.827333, 0.828364, 0.880595, 0.898226 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.84, "trend_reference": 0.9085, "distance_from_trend": -0.075399, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.485103, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.731593, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.715347, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.028902, "excess_performance": -0.092607, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.075399, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005905, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.731593, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.55843, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.097153, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.280556, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.028902, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.659563, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 248044, "relative_activity": 0.295142, "balance": 3.659563, "dry_up": 0.334429, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078984, "annualized_volatility": 0.542811, "from_high_reference": -0.389091, "from_low_reference": 0.3125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.9085, "fair_value_reference": 0.485103, "structural_low": 0.745, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.142857, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.152871, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 1.074468, "worst_return": -0.276923, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.199301, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.145921, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.807692, "worst_return": -0.409091, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.068182, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.040338, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.068182, "worst_return": 0.068182, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 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"regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.293914, "energy": 65.659345, "activity_lines": [ 0.820333, 0.848545, 0.90731, 0.915183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.81, "volume": 140106, "typical_volume": 958558.0, "trend": 0.9165, "fair_value": 0.477378, "relative_strength": -7.72117, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.397917, "energy": 64.913636, "activity_lines": [ 0.816667, 0.835727, 0.896119, 0.908086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.835, "volume": 411678, "typical_volume": 897793.4, "trend": 0.911333, "fair_value": 0.481417, "relative_strength": -7.226875, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.130575, "energy": 60.020192, "activity_lines": [ 0.822, 0.830273, 0.888071, 0.902828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.84, "volume": 248044, "typical_volume": 840423.65, "trend": 0.9085, "fair_value": 0.485103, "relative_strength": -9.715347, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.408125, "energy": 49.891378, "activity_lines": [ 0.827333, 0.828364, 0.880595, 0.898226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }