{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b0814ad6-d7b6-40d3-bd3a-1ff46ee3cf87", "symbol": "TPE", "name": "PVA TePla AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 64.341, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -42.531, "architecture_energy": 45.478, "architecture_maturity": 45.465, "architecture_confidence": 72.491, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.52, "rotation_up": 14.04, "upward_expansion": 22.97, "deceleration": 63.48, "rotation_down": 72.69, "downward_expansion": 41.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.690666, 36.888364, 38.789905, 37.114495 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 30.059999, "trend_reference": 34.301333, "distance_from_trend": -0.123649, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.211859, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.417132, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.436906, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.447977, "excess_performance": 0.383337, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.123649, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.190247, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.417132, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.818564, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.084369, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.790197, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.447977, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.535123, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 701954, "relative_activity": 1.807854, "balance": 0.535123, "dry_up": 1.356547, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.143098, "annualized_volatility": 0.535737, "from_high_reference": -0.342232, "from_low_reference": 0.611796 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.301333, "fair_value_reference": 21.211859, "structural_low": 20.879999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.104247, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.129411, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.247993, "worst_return": -0.262687, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.128065, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.23569, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.38537, "worst_return": -0.385714, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.281562, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.353516, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.946476, "worst_return": -0.520952, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.285604, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.335268, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.029065, "worst_return": -0.542143, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.107179, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.161468, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.13173, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.128312, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.130244, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.238612, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.230585, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009058, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.129349, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", 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36.720001, "volume": 307004, "typical_volume": 367012.85, "trend": 33.834667, "fair_value": 21.055385, "relative_strength": 18.538253, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.219467, "energy": 22.48769, "activity_lines": [ 38.441333, 40.277091, 40.044953, 37.434366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.96, "volume": 544224, "typical_volume": 379434.75, "trend": 34.143333, "fair_value": 21.138718, "relative_strength": 3.534736, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -12.796172, "energy": 27.027933, "activity_lines": [ 36.193333, 38.758546, 39.570953, 37.377936 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.059999, "volume": 701954, "typical_volume": 388280.3, "trend": 34.301333, "fair_value": 21.211859, "relative_strength": -8.436906, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.531058, "energy": 45.477602, "activity_lines": [ 33.690666, 36.888364, 38.789905, 37.114495 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }