{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b081ae1c-a2a7-4ba6-b193-28a6e932f5e3", "symbol": "688449", "name": "Maxio Technology (Hangzhou) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 79.409, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -16.209, "architecture_energy": 29.857, "architecture_maturity": 55.873, "architecture_confidence": 54.961, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.16, "rotation_up": 16.76, "upward_expansion": 18.08, "deceleration": 69.81, "rotation_down": 62.15, "downward_expansion": 40.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 57.643334, 64.262508, 66.037503, 62.612961 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 59.540001, "trend_reference": 58.720471, "distance_from_trend": 0.013956, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 50.581865, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.177102, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.277761, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.046949, "excess_performance": 0.090153, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.013956, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.123796, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.177102, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.232467, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.082778, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.188723, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.046949, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.540641, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 51569785, "relative_activity": 0.931421, "balance": 0.540641, "dry_up": 1.021074, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.205069, "annualized_volatility": 0.843993, "from_high_reference": -0.364775, "from_low_reference": 0.445146 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 58.720471, "fair_value_reference": 50.581865, "structural_low": 41.200001, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.198206, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.135176, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-29", "close": 50.98, "volume": 49749311, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-06", "close": 41.220001, "volume": 110612961, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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"relative_strength": 11.071338, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.88901, "energy": 26.489203, "activity_lines": [ 71.941333, 73.308453, 67.812133, 63.095547 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 54.529999, "volume": 55734085, "typical_volume": 54777421.75, "trend": 58.058471, "fair_value": 50.455978, "relative_strength": 3.102629, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.392799, "energy": 14.908378, "activity_lines": [ 65.275333, 69.769391, 67.16378, 62.891043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.450001, "volume": 47481496, "typical_volume": 55657145.4, "trend": 58.241804, "fair_value": 50.478898, "relative_strength": -1.531073, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -6.094054, "energy": 22.009992, "activity_lines": [ 59.336, 66.050722, 66.27838, 62.529206 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 59.540001, "volume": 51569785, "typical_volume": 55366797.1, "trend": 58.720471, "fair_value": 50.581865, "relative_strength": 8.277761, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.209389, "energy": 29.85683, "activity_lines": [ 57.643334, 64.262508, 66.037503, 62.612961 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }