{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b0836271-d9e6-4ccc-a146-b9b442129f07", "symbol": "OVF", "name": "OVERLAY SHARES FOREIGN EQUITY ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 76.787, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.012, "architecture_energy": 30.086, "architecture_maturity": 52.531, "architecture_confidence": 80.915, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.48, "rotation_up": 41.01, "upward_expansion": 64.76, "deceleration": 86.3, "rotation_down": 27.52, "downward_expansion": 14.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.456825, 31.380351, 31.26184, 30.913984 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 32.2989, "trend_reference": 30.526841, "distance_from_trend": 0.058049, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.892027, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.351869, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.686295, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.066333, "excess_performance": -0.059291, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.058049, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043003, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.351869, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027166, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.006863, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032206, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.066333, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.493376, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 162063, "relative_activity": 2.174367, "balance": 1.493376, "dry_up": 1.805915, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033184, "annualized_volatility": 0.20449, "from_high_reference": -0.00526, "from_low_reference": 0.269592 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.526841, "fair_value_reference": 23.892027, "structural_low": 27.690784, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.012479, "positive_rate": 0.685714, "directional_follow_through": 0.685714, "median_excess_return": -0.000508, "regime_survival": 0.742857, "best_return": 0.055363, "worst_return": -0.052544, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.037802, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.022159, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.122553, "worst_return": -0.139744, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.05239, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.055593, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.186648, "worst_return": 0.000135, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"volume": 90678, "typical_volume": 60339.3, "trend": 30.319108, "fair_value": 23.725142, "relative_strength": -1.110007, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.579965, "energy": 15.450097, "activity_lines": [ 30.987659, 31.193355, 31.03783, 30.728648 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.31, "volume": 172300, "typical_volume": 68287.75, "trend": 30.417094, "fair_value": 23.805472, "relative_strength": -0.290518, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.676228, "energy": 15.566002, "activity_lines": [ 31.066013, 31.196782, 31.109583, 30.792577 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.2989, "volume": 162063, "typical_volume": 74533.4, "trend": 30.526841, "fair_value": 23.892027, "relative_strength": -0.686295, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.01203, "energy": 30.086245, "activity_lines": [ 31.456825, 31.380351, 31.26184, 30.913984 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }