{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b08a27d8-dbcb-4561-9d9b-ced2c4f5d473", "symbol": "HST", "name": "Hutter & Schrantz Stahlbau AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.966, "architecture_energy": 68.14, "architecture_maturity": 44.093, "architecture_confidence": 68.515, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.17, "rotation_up": 61.59, "upward_expansion": 84.84, "deceleration": 66.29, "rotation_down": 24.93, "downward_expansion": 11.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.533333, 28.443636, 28.158095, 27.884301 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 28.799999, "trend_reference": 27.293333, "distance_from_trend": 0.055203, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.167916, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.36055, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.491617, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.16129, "excess_performance": -0.012956, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.055203, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022478, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.36055, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019757, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.134916, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062341, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.16129, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.576471, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 99, "relative_activity": 0.676692, "balance": 1.576471, "dry_up": 4.272044, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.010684, "annualized_volatility": 0.187346, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.170732 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.293333, "fair_value_reference": 21.167916, "structural_low": 24.6, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.020298, "regime_survival": 0.708333, "best_return": 0.314286, "worst_return": -0.079439, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.027778, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.063933, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.493671, "worst_return": -0.135514, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.000618, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.07359, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.427286, "worst_return": -0.135514, "sufficient": true 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.488916, "energy": 87.473112, "activity_lines": [ 28.186666, 27.832727, 27.631428, 27.212903 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 28.4, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 61.85, "trend": 26.846666, "fair_value": 20.760551, "relative_strength": -12.413739, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.520992, "energy": 89.972927, "activity_lines": [ 28.293333, 27.978182, 27.740952, 27.314838 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 28.4, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 55.8, "trend": 26.873333, "fair_value": 20.828018, "relative_strength": -14.548036, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.755167, "energy": 67.927512, "activity_lines": [ 28.293333, 28.101818, 27.833333, 27.415053 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 28.4, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 54.35, "trend": 26.933333, "fair_value": 20.895484, "relative_strength": -13.518934, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.579147, "energy": 66.793729, "activity_lines": [ 28.32, 28.203636, 27.908571, 27.513548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.4, "volume": 201, "typical_volume": 44.65, "trend": 27.02, "fair_value": 20.962951, "relative_strength": -11.914515, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.536697, "energy": 66.806944, "activity_lines": [ 28.373333, 28.283636, 27.966666, 27.608172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.4, "volume": 2200, "typical_volume": 145.75, "trend": 27.106666, "fair_value": 21.030418, "relative_strength": -12.972482, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.396559, "energy": 64.267211, "activity_lines": [ 28.4, 28.341818, 28.018095, 27.697204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.4, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 141.35, "trend": 27.193333, "fair_value": 21.097885, "relative_strength": -12.505302, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.627238, "energy": 62.669608, "activity_lines": [ 28.4, 28.370909, 28.070476, 27.780645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.799999, "volume": 99, "typical_volume": 146.3, "trend": 27.293333, "fair_value": 21.167916, "relative_strength": -13.491617, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.966481, "energy": 68.139682, "activity_lines": [ 28.533333, 28.443636, 28.158095, 27.884301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }