{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b08ee1fb-1c5f-4012-abd4-1a0ff5a0e504", "symbol": "HIPO", "name": "Hippo Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 61.66, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.443, "architecture_energy": 76.647, "architecture_maturity": 21.931, "architecture_confidence": 66.497, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.86, "rotation_up": 78.53, "upward_expansion": 91.65, "deceleration": 42.18, "rotation_down": 9.08, "downward_expansion": 15.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.64, 29.408545, 28.177905, 27.799376 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 32.62, "trend_reference": 27.782, "distance_from_trend": 0.174142, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.780064, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.431954, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.078899, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.105763, "excess_performance": -0.019862, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.174142, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037631, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.431954, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.17961, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.040789, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.144905, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.105763, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.546793, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1184110, "relative_activity": 1.788779, "balance": 2.546793, "dry_up": 1.322687, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070911, "annualized_volatility": 0.342574, "from_high_reference": -0.163161, "from_low_reference": 0.354651 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.782, "fair_value_reference": 22.780064, "structural_low": 24.08, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.212027, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.179225, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.458933, "worst_return": -0.03488, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.407714, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.345199, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.541067, "worst_return": 0.274362, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.391039, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.269566, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.656224, "worst_return": 0.125854, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"direction": 21.098002, "energy": 23.387561, "activity_lines": [ 27.957333, 27.058182, 26.881571, 27.149247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.33, "volume": 756921, "typical_volume": 620356.5, "trend": 27.804667, "fair_value": 22.458526, "relative_strength": -10.578011, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.175735, "energy": 35.154592, "activity_lines": [ 28.624, 27.538182, 27.126857, 27.244301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.76, "volume": 534069, "typical_volume": 611058.3, "trend": 27.686333, "fair_value": 22.529423, "relative_strength": -14.678389, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.291804, "energy": 35.616154, "activity_lines": [ 28.514667, 27.696, 27.219905, 27.241419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.45, "volume": 1027191, "typical_volume": 633026.25, "trend": 27.735333, "fair_value": 22.633077, "relative_strength": -4.420982, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 51.189573, "energy": 59.755646, "activity_lines": [ 29.515333, 28.493636, 27.65781, 27.484237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.62, "volume": 1184110, "typical_volume": 661965.4, "trend": 27.782, "fair_value": 22.780064, "relative_strength": -4.078899, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.443086, "energy": 76.646678, "activity_lines": [ 30.64, 29.408545, 28.177905, 27.799376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }