{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b090a14d-b4c3-4242-8b77-323168d69b38", "symbol": "ADTN", "name": "ADTRAN Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -56.351, "architecture_energy": 76.323, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.042, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.63, "rotation_up": 16.16, "upward_expansion": 24.74, "deceleration": 43.03, "rotation_down": 81.02, "downward_expansion": 68.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.208667, 10.949455, 12.905048, 13.015398 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 7.56, "trend_reference": 12.587, "distance_from_trend": -0.39938, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.478205, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.108302, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.460316, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.233266, "excess_performance": -0.420719, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.39938, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.120604, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.108302, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.932415, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.394603, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.658462, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.233266, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.275543, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15339665, "relative_activity": 1.260202, "balance": 0.275543, "dry_up": 1.048728, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.310835, "annualized_volatility": 0.699015, "from_high_reference": -0.621622, "from_low_reference": 0.063291 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.587, "fair_value_reference": 8.478205, "structural_low": 7.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.091821, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.011845, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.103405, "worst_return": -0.077491, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.266487, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.029495, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.286255, "worst_return": 0.08263, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.216689, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.029377, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.087011, "worst_return": -0.060183, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.692112, 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"regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -10.441667, "energy": 22.795909, "activity_lines": [ 12.824, 13.790182, 14.480857, 13.785763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.85, "volume": 11812011, "typical_volume": 11363524.95, "trend": 12.634333, "fair_value": 8.484744, "relative_strength": -17.390263, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.889259, "energy": 50.324759, "activity_lines": [ 11.674, 12.958545, 14.069381, 13.608495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.51, "volume": 16274454, "typical_volume": 11945818.5, "trend": 12.628667, "fair_value": 8.481282, "relative_strength": -28.743011, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.223521, "energy": 64.639424, "activity_lines": [ 10.432667, 11.975273, 13.529048, 13.342409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.56, "volume": 15339665, "typical_volume": 12172388.05, "trend": 12.587, "fair_value": 8.478205, "relative_strength": -39.460316, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -56.350963, "energy": 76.323352, "activity_lines": [ 9.208667, 10.949455, 12.905048, 13.015398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }