{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b0910830-cffb-46ec-a025-09f3d6d4e08c", "symbol": "R1GR", "name": "iShares Russell 1000 Growth UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 55.849, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 30.288, "architecture_energy": 18.895, "architecture_maturity": 52.498, "architecture_confidence": 84.633, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.14, "rotation_up": 28.55, "upward_expansion": 49.85, "deceleration": 81.47, "rotation_down": 35.78, "downward_expansion": 30.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.0375, 45.147728, 45.401607, 44.729979 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 46.560001, "trend_reference": 44.00475, "distance_from_trend": 0.058068, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.510801, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.275239, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.02726, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.098243, "excess_performance": 0.047007, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.058068, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010137, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.275239, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032055, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.020273, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055207, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.098243, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.357438, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 176375, "relative_activity": 0.477548, "balance": 3.357438, "dry_up": 0.691911, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036087, "annualized_volatility": 0.196183, "from_high_reference": -0.029393, "from_low_reference": 0.207782 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.00475, "fair_value_reference": 36.510801, "structural_low": 38.549999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.041763, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.05947, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.041763, "worst_return": -0.041763, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.120291, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.068275, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.167112, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.067431, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward 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43.943084, "fair_value": 36.259728, "relative_strength": -5.712963, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.061037, "energy": 15.888832, "activity_lines": [ 44.896167, 45.330182, 45.270703, 44.575473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.709999, "volume": 343845, "typical_volume": 371753.05, "trend": 43.932084, "fair_value": 36.374006, "relative_strength": -7.863605, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.331743, "energy": 13.338705, "activity_lines": [ 44.464333, 44.949864, 45.206703, 44.560436 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.560001, "volume": 176375, "typical_volume": 369334.6, "trend": 44.00475, "fair_value": 36.510801, "relative_strength": -2.02726, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.287664, "energy": 18.895413, "activity_lines": [ 45.0375, 45.147728, 45.401607, 44.729979 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }