{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "b09fa259-9df2-40b1-8644-6b03ec79c44a",
    "symbol": "SP5EUY",
    "name": "UBS Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF USD dis",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 86.268,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 87.822,
    "architecture_energy": 71.191,
    "architecture_maturity": 91.911,
    "architecture_confidence": 68.863,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 14.11,
        "rotation_up": 58.88,
        "upward_expansion": 85.33,
        "deceleration": 68.58,
        "rotation_down": 29.23,
        "downward_expansion": 12.0
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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        102.179095
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      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 108.690002,
    "trend_reference": 99.341991,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.094099,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 84.409261,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.287655,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -3.061957,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.156593,
    "excess_performance": -0.014299,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.094099,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.041931,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.287655,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.033483,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.03062,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.008314,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.156593,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.959184,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 7592,
      "relative_activity": 3.506697,
      "balance": 0.959184,
      "dry_up": 2.121132,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.01591,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.119478,
      "from_high_reference": -0.002753,
      "from_low_reference": 0.239319
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 99.341991,
      "fair_value_reference": 84.409261,
      "structural_low": 89.580002,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 40,
        "median_return": 0.008773,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
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        "worst_return": -0.102039,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
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        "sufficient": true
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        "horizon": "Extended",
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        "sufficient": true
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        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "trend": 95.0197,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "fair_value": 81.956113,
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        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "trend": 96.112437,
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        "stage": 2,
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "trend": 96.888236,
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        "relative_strength": -2.938602,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "volume": 0,
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        "trend": 97.297866,
        "fair_value": 83.051511,
        "relative_strength": -3.62526,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "trend": 97.714304,
        "fair_value": 83.328087,
        "relative_strength": -3.839654,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 578,
        "typical_volume": 2317.6,
        "trend": 98.1538,
        "fair_value": 83.603139,
        "relative_strength": -1.488677,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 78.489781,
        "energy": 71.151394,
        "activity_lines": [
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          105.628,
          102.95381,
          100.667421
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 105.839996,
        "volume": 1747,
        "typical_volume": 1748.35,
        "trend": 98.540377,
        "fair_value": 83.868397,
        "relative_strength": -2.338163,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.673923,
        "energy": 68.530134,
        "activity_lines": [
          106.231998,
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          101.163305
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 104.489998,
        "volume": 8452,
        "typical_volume": 1845.5,
        "trend": 98.894877,
        "fair_value": 84.122647,
        "relative_strength": -4.123359,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 63.303093,
        "energy": 61.955783,
        "activity_lines": [
          105.715331,
          105.592181,
          103.872047,
          101.547152
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 108.690002,
        "volume": 7592,
        "typical_volume": 2165.0,
        "trend": 99.341991,
        "fair_value": 84.409261,
        "relative_strength": -3.061957,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 87.821567,
        "energy": 71.191225,
        "activity_lines": [
          106.599999,
          106.190545,
          104.592095,
          102.179095
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}